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Brent crude is trading near 116.91, having experienced a meaningful upward move of 6.44% in the last 24 hours. All timeframes exhibit an uptrend regime, with the 1h and 4h charts showing extreme overbought conditions on RSI, at 80.6 and 80.9 respectively. The 4h chart is also pushing beyond the upper Bollinger band, indicating strong upward momentum. Despite the overbought signals on shorter timeframes, the broader trend remains bullish across all observed periods. The 1h volume z-score is 0.63, below the threshold for breakout confirmation.
The immediate price action will be heavily influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision scheduled for 18:00 UTC, in 33 minutes. This high-impact event, coupled with the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz fueling oil prices, creates a volatile environment. The market is pricing in continued supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, which has been a primary driver for the recent surge. Technical levels to watch include the 1h upper Bollinger band at 117.05 and the R3 classic pivot at 116.26. A break above the period high of 117.08 would signal further upside.
Given the strong bullish alignment across all timeframes and the persistent geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, the bias is long toward the period high at 117.08, and only a sustained close below the 1h middle Bollinger band at 112.11 would invalidate that view.
Brent crude is trading near 116.88, extending a meaningful rally driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. All timeframes show an uptrend regime, with the 1h and 4h RSI deeply overbought at 80.6 and 80.9 respectively. The 4h chart shows volume z-scores at +1.56, indicating strong participation, while the 1h volume z-score of +0.63 suggests less conviction on the shorter timeframe. The price is trading above the 1h upper Bollinger band at 117.05 and the 4h band at 118% of its range, pointing to extreme bullish momentum.
Upcoming events will be central for price direction. The US Federal Reserve interest rate decision is scheduled in 34 minutes, and while the consensus is for no change, the accompanying statement will be scrutinized for inflation outlook given the energy shock. Tomorrow brings a wave of high-impact US data including Q1 GDP, Core PCE, and Chicago PMI, which could influence dollar strength and, by extension, oil prices. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain the dominant catalyst, with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to inject a risk premium into the market.
The overwhelming bullish alignment across all timeframes, coupled with the ongoing geopolitical risk premium, suggests continued upward pressure. While the 1h RSI is overbought, this is characteristic of a strong uptrend and does not signal an immediate reversal. The price is currently testing the 4h period high at 117.08. The bias is long toward the 4h swing high at 114.51, and only a break below the 1h lower Bollinger band at 107.17 would invalidate that view.
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