Forex Analysis: USD/JPY Channeling Up, EUR/USD Awaits NFP Impact

USD/JPY Eyes 160.00 as Bullish Channel Forms

The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting bullish momentum, establishing a clear upward trajectory. The pair has successfully moved above the 156.00 and 156.50 levels, signaling continued strength. A significant rising channel is now apparent on the 4-hour chart, providing a framework for potential trading strategies. The channel's support currently rests around 156.75.

Technical analysis reveals that the US Dollar has found solid support above 155.00 against the Japanese Yen. After surpassing 156.50 and 157.20, USD/JPY reached a high of 157.97 before experiencing a minor pullback. The pair remains comfortably above both the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages on the 4-hour chart, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Immediate resistance lies near the 158.00 level. A successful break above 158.80 could pave the way for a push towards the psychological barrier of 160.00. Conversely, if the pair retraces, support can be expected around 157.20, followed by the channel support at 156.75. A breach below this channel could trigger a move towards 155.75, with major support at 155.00. A sustained break below 155.00 could potentially lead to a deeper correction towards 152.00.

EUR/USD Under Pressure, NFP Looms Large

The EUR/USD pair is currently under pressure, trading below the 1.1600 mark. This weakness stems from a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious stance on monetary policy. The ECB's emphasis on "persistent uncertainty" has prevented the Euro from capitalizing on Dollar weakness.

All eyes are now on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to be released later today. The NFP data is forecast to show an increase of 59,000 jobs in February 2026, compared to 130,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. A strong NFP reading could solidify Dollar dominance, while a weaker-than-expected figure could provide some relief for the Euro.

Immediate support for EUR/USD lies at 1.1578. A break below this level could trigger further downside. The NFP data will be crucial in determining the pair's short-term trajectory.

USD/CAD Consolidates Amidst Conflicting Forces

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading within a narrow range between 1.3645 and 1.3700, a consolidation pattern that has been in place since mid-February. The Canadian dollar is facing headwinds from a robust US dollar, but is finding support from rising crude oil prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions. This creates a tug-of-war effect, limiting significant directional movement.

Technical indicators suggest continued consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are compressed around the zero level.

Immediate support is identified at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3645, closely followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3635. Conversely, an upward break above the 50-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3730 would likely indicate a shift towards a more bullish outlook.

• Key Levels to Watch:
• USD/JPY: Support at 156.75, Resistance at 158.80
• EUR/USD: Support at 1.1578, Resistance at 1.1600
• USD/CAD: Support at 1.3645, Resistance at 1.3730