Glencore charts solo path to copper dominance

Glencore (LON: GLEN) is doubling down on a copper-led growth strategy to become one of the world’s largest producers without pursuing a mega-merger, even as weaker coal markets weigh on its performance.

The Swiss miner and commodities trader walked away from merger talks with Rio Tinto (ASX, LON: RIO) in early February, ending negotiations that could have created the world’s largest mining firm, while separately agreeing to sell a 40% stake in its flagship copper and cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium. 

Analysts say the moves highlight a deliberate push to reshape the portfolio around future-facing metals while preserving financial flexibility.

“Exposure to metals used in electric vehicles will leave the firm well placed to secure lucrative supply contracts,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions said, pointing to copper, cobalt and nickel as key drivers.

How Rio–Glencore talks fell apart

Glencore’s latest results show it is already pivoting in that direction. The company reported “strong strategic progress” in 2025, driven by portfolio optimization and operational improvements, and reaffirmed plans to produce more than 1 million tonnes of copper annually by 2028 and about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. 

Growth is expected to come from low-capital projects and improvements at existing operations, including the Katanga (KCC) complex in the DRC, where a land access agreement with Gécamines supports a path to roughly 300,000 tonnes per year and extends mine life.

Gains and pressures

Recent performance reflects both momentum and headwinds across Glencore’s diversified business.

The company produced 851,600 tonnes of copper in 2025, down 11% from a year earlier due to lower grades and recoveries at key operations including Collahuasi, Antamina and Mount Isa. Output strengthened in the second half, rising nearly 50% from the first half as grades improved. Zinc production rose 7% to 969,400 tonnes, while nickel output fell 7% and cobalt slipped 5% amid export restrictions in the DRC.

Financial results were similarly mixed. Revenue rose 7% to $247.5 billion, while adjusted EBITDA fell 6% to $13.5 billion and adjusted EBIT dropped 14% to $6 billion, partly due to weaker coal prices. Net income recovered to $363 million from a $1.6 billion loss in 2024. The balance sheet remained stable with net debt of $11.2 billion and liquidity of $12.9 billion, while shareholder distributions totalled about $2 billion.

Coal continues to generate strong cash flow but complicates the investment case. The segment faces increasing environmental scrutiny and a weaker long-term outlook as the global economy shifts toward decarbonization, even as demand remains resilient in developing Asia. BMI said Glencore could still spin off its coal business, though the company has not announced formal plans.

Outlook risks

Glencore continues to reshape its portfolio while navigating operational and geopolitical risks.

The company acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru and divested assets including the Pasar copper smelter and Puerto Nuevo coal export terminal, signalling a shift toward higher-margin and transition-linked commodities. At the same time, it faces ongoing legal scrutiny, resource nationalism and social opposition in key jurisdictions, all of which could affect operations and project development. Weak nickel prices have already forced production suspensions in New Caledonia.

Glencore expects to produce between 810,000 and 870,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, alongside 700,000 to 740,000 tonnes of zinc and up to 100 million tonnes of energy coal, but did not provide cobalt guidance due to uncertainty around export quotas in the DRC.

The company’s standalone strategy centres on capturing a widening supply gap in critical minerals essential to the energy transition, positioning Glencore to scale into a dominant copper producer without relying on large-scale mergers.