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El Niño, War, and Fertilizer Costs Create a Dangerous Inflation Cocktail
Rory Green, TS Lombard's chief China economist, is the latest Wall Street strategist to warn of the mounting macro and food inflation risks that a super El Niño could release on certain regions of the world. In a note titled "Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?" Green warns that war-related disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets, compounded by adverse weather conditions, could create a perfect storm for global food prices. Green said, "In general, El Niño raises temperatures and...
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Saudi Arabia’s Decided Who Its Future Superpower Partner Is, And It’s Not the US
Since the replacement of Russia by China as the primary would-be superpower rival to the U.S., Saudi Arabia has sought to balance its relationships with Beijing and Washington -- sometimes leaning more one way, and sometimes the other. Until the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, the U.S. was the core relationship; after the war had finished, it was China and Russia; and then, from the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in office, it was the U.S. again. However, in the aftermath of...
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Italian gas distributor Italgas plans to invest nearly $15 billion by 2032 as it accelerates the use of AI in increasingly smarter and flexible networks, Europe’s largest natural gas distributor said on Tuesday. Total planned investments under the company’s Strategic Plan 2026-2032 unveiled today will be 13 billion euros, or $14.8 billion, through 2032. This would be a 14.6% increase compared to the previous strategic plan. A total of $9.5 billion (8.3 billion euros) is earmarked for the...
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US-Iran talks and a 60-day sanctions waiver have eased supply fears, but traders remain cautious on the outlook for Iranian oil exports. From War Shock to Weather Shock: Super El Niño Threatens Fresh Commodity Chaos - Record high sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are paving the way for an unprecedentedly severe ‘Super’ El Niño, with equatorial temperatures currently 1.7C above the 30-year average. - This summer would witness the largest temperature deviation from the historical average for...
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In 2024, China announced export controls on antimony. It’s a metal most people have never heard of, but antimony goes into more than 200 types of military munitions. Within weeks, the price went from $1,400 per ton to $38,000 - a 2,600% spike - and shipments to the United States fell 97%. Today, Beijing is setting up for something bigger. And REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) - a U.S.-based mine-to-magnet rare earth company - has spent years getting ready for it. The company holds an exclusive 80%...
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Though the firm's manufacturing index ran better than expected for June, it came largely from an inventory rebuild and despite sharp job cuts.
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US business activity accelerated in June, with the Flash Composite PMI Output Index rising from 51.5 to 52.2, its highest level in five months. The improvement was driven largely by manufacturing, where the Manufacturing PMI increased from 55.1 to 55.7, a 49-month high, while the Manufacturing Output Index climbed from 56.6 to 57.7, the strongest […] The post US PMI Improves as Middle East Tensions Ease and Energy Costs Fall appeared first on ActionForex.
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further accelerate through 2030 as utility-scale projects lead growth, the SolarPower Europe association said in a new report on Tuesday. Last year, the European battery storage market saw 36 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of new installations, up by 48% from 2024, when growth had slowed. Installations rebounded strongly in 2025, and are set to continue accelerating. This year, annual installations are expected to top 50 GWh, SolarPower Europe said. The annual pace of new additions is then projected to...
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At the remarkable age of one hundred, the legendary central banker Alan Greenspan passed away yesterday. An economist who was nominated no fewer than five times by four different U.S. presidents, he spent twenty years at the helm of the Federal Reserve around the turn of the century. If central banks owe their de facto […] The post Warsh: the New Fed Chief Would Like to Repeat Greenspan’s Trick of Ignoring a Productivity Boom appeared first on ActionForex.
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Global markets were gripped by a technology-led selloff today, with investors abruptly shifting their attention away from the fading Middle East energy shock and toward mounting concerns over stretched valuations, leverage, and financial conditions. The sharp decline in Asian equities spilled into Europe and U.S. futures, driving classic risk-off positioning across currencies. Yen led gains, […] The post Tech Rout Dominates as Yen Surge Raises Risk of Dangerous Feedback Loop appeared first on...
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Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the biggest refiner in the country, did not receive any bids in a tender to charter three tankers to pick up crude and gas from the Persian Gulf and ship the volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources with knowledge of the development told Reuters on Tuesday. Since the Strait of Hormuz tentatively reopened at the end of last week, vessel traffic has picked up, especially for outbound tankers that have been stuck for months in the Gulf. But many shipowners...
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ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized on Tuesday that the central bank’s recent policy tightening should be viewed as a measured response to inflation risks rather than the start of an aggressive hiking cycle. Speaking before the European Parliament’s ECON committee, Lane acknowledged that progress toward resolving the conflict in the Middle East was encouraging […] The post Lane: ECB’s Response Is “Calibrated,” Not a “Huge, Gigantic” Tightening Push appeared first on ActionForex.