EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
# draft · v3
The dollar index extended losses into Friday's close as
traders priced in a softer Fed path. Two-year yields fell
11 bps on the week, the steepest drop since March, while
real yields broke below 1.80% - a level last seen in Q4.
EUR/USD reclaimed the 100-DMA at 1.0840 with conviction,
and momentum oscillators flipped bullish on the daily.
The pair now eyes the 1.0950 swing high; a clean break
opens the door to 1.1080 - last summer's resistance shelf.
Risk Asymmetry
Positioning data from CFTC shows speculative shorts at
3-month highs. A squeeze setup is mechanically forming;
any dovish surprise from Powell next week could ignite it.
On the downside, 1.0780 is the line in the sand. Below
there, the bullish thesis fails and we revisit 1.0680.
Trade Idea
Long EUR/USD on retest of 1.0810 with stops at 1.0770.
Targets staggered at 1.0920, 1.0980, 1.1050.
R/R favorable at ~3.2:1 on the first leg.
// continued in part 2
