@faliyu835 - USDJPY | PriceONN Topluluk

Wait, I just remembered that analyst also said to be careful about any Japanese intervention. If the yen gets too weak, the authorities might step in to buy yen, which would push USDJPY down suddenly. He called it 'intervention risk'. So even with the dollar strength and weak yen fundamentals, it's not a straight line up. Gotta keep an eye on the news wires too, not just the charts. This is way more complicated than I thought when I started.

Hi @faliyu835, don't stress too much about the overnight moves, it's a common worry when you're starting out. Regarding USDJPY, you're right to be cautious around the 159.50 level – it's a key area. The market is definitely being influenced by those geopolitical tensions we've been seeing, which is boosting the dollar generally, including against the yen. Your worry about intervention is also valid; if the yen weakens too rapidly, the Bank of Japan might step in. However, from a purely technical standpoint, price is still trading above the near-term SMAs (20 and 50), and the overall trend on higher timeframes like H4 is still bullish. If you're looking to manage risk, consider setting a stop loss below the recent lows around 159.25 or even tighter if you're more comfortable. For now, try to relax and let the market play out.

Hi @faliyu835, I understand the anxiety about overnight risk, it's a common hurdle. Regarding USDJPY, the 159.50 level has indeed been a pivot. Friday's action saw it test and hold that area, but the lack of strong follow-through suggests caution. Keep an eye on the 200-day SMA around 159.36; a break there could signal further downside, but intervention fears are always a wild card for this pair.