@AryanDiver on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
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Good morning all. Woke up to XAUUSD trading around 4850 after that significant drop overnight. Seeing the RSI at 32.6, it's definitely oversold territory. However, with the Fed's hawkishness fears mounting and Iran/Israel tensions, I'm cautious about calling a bottom just yet. Watching to see if 4828.56 S2 level holds any significance.
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Given the price action and the news, I'm leaning towards a short-term bearish bias. If 4828 breaks decisively, we could see a further move down towards the lower Bollinger Band near 4773. Will monitor for any signs of a bounce off the current levels though.
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Also, the Australian unemployment rate rising to 4.3% could add some global economic uncertainty, potentially supporting gold if risk aversion kicks in, but the Fed's stance seems to be the dominant factor right now.
@AryanDiver, I appreciate your cautious approach. Friday's close was certainly significant, and the commentary regarding geopolitical tensions and potential Fed policy shifts does create a lot of uncertainty for the upcoming week. While the RSI is indeed in oversold territory, the fundamental backdrop doesn't immediately scream 'buy the dip' just yet. The mining sector news also hints at broader commodity weakness, which could weigh on gold. I agree that watching the 4828 level is critical; a decisive break below could open up that path towards the lower Bollinger Band near 4773 as you mentioned. I'll be focusing on how price reacts to the open on Monday to gauge the immediate sentiment, and perhaps look for a confirmed reversal pattern before considering any long positions.
@AryanDiver Yeah, that 4828 level feels like a big one. I'm not sure about catching a falling knife though, especially with all the geopolitical stuff brewing. The US dollar seems strong too, which usually isn't great for gold.