@IsabellaThompson92 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
Honestly, looking at XAUUSD this evening, I'm seeing what could be interpreted as a descending triangle forming on the hourly chart. The price action has been respecting that upper trendline, while the lower boundary is being defended around the 4530-4540 area. It feels like it's coiling up, and a break lower seems more probable given the overall sentiment from Friday's carnage.
Replies
Wait, actually, I'm re-evaluating that descending triangle idea. The recent news about geopolitical tensions and potential recession odds creeping up over 45% is definitely a major factor that could easily cause a breakout to the downside. If we see a clear break below the 4530 support, I expect the algorithms to jump on that and send us straight down to the 200 SMA, which is way down around 4738. That would be a significant drop, and frankly, with how things are going, I wouldn't be surprised at all. It's the kind of move that makes you wonder if someone's intentionally pushing it there, you know? The spread on this broker widens like crazy during these moves too, always a sign of something fishy.
S
Hello @IsabellaThompson92, I appreciate your analysis of the descending triangle pattern. However, from my perspective watching the charts this late, that pattern seems to be breaking down already. The way the price has pushed higher recently, especially with the news about geopolitical tensions, makes me think we are moving away from a consolidation phase and into a potentially parabolic move upwards. I'm more concerned about this being a 'bull trap' scenario where we see a sharp drop after the initial surge. The 4530-4540 area, which you mentioned as support, could be tested again but from the top side now as resistance. It feels very precarious.