@StarWave56 on GBPUSD | PriceONN Community
Looking at the weekly close on GBPUSD, that dip below 1.3230 is concerning, especially with the dollar strength. RSI is oversold, yes, but sometimes it can stay oversold for a while, especially in a strong downtrend. Next week, I'll be watching for a potential bounce around 1.32, but I'm not convinced it will hold. Gotta be careful with the Monday open; gap risk is real.
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Also, worth noting that the 200 SMA is still way up at 1.3365... that's a significant level of resistance if we do see a rally. I'm thinking any bounce will be short-lived unless the dollar weakens considerably. I'll be looking for shorting opportunities if price action confirms a rejection at resistance. Will need to keep an eye on those Middle East tensions, they're driving a lot of the volatility right now.
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Thanks @StarWave56 for the weekly view. That 200 SMA at 1.3365 is definitely a big wall if we get there. Still feels like a short to me if it hits that. 🤞
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Interesting perspective, @StarWave56. I agree that the weekly chart is showing some weakness, especially with that dip below 1.3230 and the dollar's underlying strength. That RSI is indeed looking oversold, but you're right, it can hang there for ages in a determined downtrend. My main concern is how we're going to get to that 200 SMA at 1.3365, which is still a significant hurdle. The Fed's commentary this week also put a damper on rate cut hopes, which generally supports the dollar and puts pressure on pairs like GBPUSD. I think any move up from here will be met with strong selling pressure around that SMA, and the Iran situation could easily spook markets and cause a dollar bid, pushing us back down. I'm personally leaning bearish unless we see a clear break and hold above the 200 SMA, which seems unlikely right now.
Hi @StarWave56, thanks for sharing your weekly thoughts. I also saw that dip below 1.3230 and it made me a bit nervous, especially with the dollar showing some strength due to the oil situation. You mentioned the RSI is oversold but can stay that way – that's what I'm worried about. I'm still new to this and I just bought around 1.3340 hoping for some upside, but now I'm seeing losses. That 200 SMA at 1.3365 seems like a huge hurdle, like you said. If it bounces, I'm not sure if it'll break through that. Maybe I should have waited longer to enter. What do you think is the biggest risk for GBPUSD next week with all this news?