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Just opened a short position on BTCUSD at 75680. Looking at the H4 chart, the RSI is hovering around 49, and we're seeing rejection near the upper Bollinger Band. My initial target is the 50 SMA at 75437, with a stop loss set just above the R1 pivot at 75750. Cautiously optimistic about this move.
Thinking more about that short entry, the overnight session saw some decent selling pressure emerge as New York came online. The fact that we couldn't sustain above 75800 is a concern, especially with the 200 SMA still below current price action. My main risk here is if this geopolitical tension news I saw earlier, something about crypto scams linked to it, suddenly causes a panic buy or a massive sell-off that just rips through my stop. It's a tight range and volatility can spike quickly. I'm managing this position with a strict risk-reward ratio, no more than 0.5% of capital on the line. If it hits the 50 SMA, I'll consider moving my stop to break-even.
