@aWhite94 on USDJPY | PriceONN Community
Weekend thoughts on USDJPY. The close on Friday was interesting, sitting right around that 159.56 level. It's pretty much neutral territory according to the RSI at 51.2. Looking at the SMAs, the 50-day is below the price but the 20-day is slightly above, which is a bit mixed. I'll be watching for any potential gap on Monday open, especially with all the oil news and inflation data coming out. That could really push the Fed's hand on rate cuts, which would definitely impact USDJPY.
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The oil price surge is a big wildcard for next week's USDJPY. If inflation picks up significantly, it might make the Fed pause rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar. However, if we see risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, that usually benefits the yen. It feels like a coin toss right now, and I'm not keen on taking a big directional bet until we see how Monday opens and get that CPI data. I've set alerts around the 159.60 resistance and 159.30 support levels to see if anything interesting develops. It's all about managing risk this weekend.
Also, it's worth noting that the weekly chart for USDJPY closed above the 200 SMA, which is generally a good sign for the longer-term trend, even with this recent choppy price action.