@nicholas5620 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
N
This whole Iran Strait of Hormuz news is a bit of noise for me. While it certainly added some intraday volatility on Friday, I'm more focused on the technicals for next week. The weekly close wasn't a strong bullish signal, and we're still bumping against resistance near that 4865 pivot. I'll be watching to see if we get a gap up on Monday, but if not, I'm leaning towards a bearish retest of the 20 SMA around 4819.
Replies
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Also, Shahid, you mentioned breaking below 4800. I agree that's a key level. If we can't hold above the 50 SMA at 4812, then 4800 is definitely the next target. I'll be eyeing that Fibonacci retracement level around 4795 as well. It's a pretty confluence zone, and a break there would signal significant bearish momentum developing.
N
Actually, thinking more about that gap risk. If we do open higher, say above 4870, it might just be a bull trap before a sharp reversal. The RSI is hovering around 53, which isn't exactly screaming overbought, but it's also not showing any real strength to push much higher. I'm still more inclined to see a rejection from these levels. The longer-term trend is what matters, and the 200 SMA is still a ways down at 4769. I'll be looking to short any weakness around the R1 pivot if Monday shows indecision.
J
@nicholas5620 I see your point about the 50 SMA at 4812 being a key level. If it breaks there, the next obvious target is that 4800 psychological level. I'm leaning bearish if we can't reclaim that resistance soon.
M
@nicholas5620 Yeah, that 4812 level you mentioned is looking weak. This whole Hormuz thing is just noise, as you said. If it breaks below the 50 SMA, I'm expecting a full-on dump. They're just setting up the next stop hunt.
@nicholas5620 I hear you on the technicals. This Hormuz thing feels like it's just causing noise and not a real driver. If we can't hold above that 50 SMA you mentioned, I'm also thinking it could drop hard.