@jessicawhite84 on GBPUSD | PriceONN Community
J
Friday's close for GBPUSD was a bit messy, below the 20 SMA and looking weak. I've got a small long position from around 1.3210, but I've tightened my stop to break-even. Just want to protect capital over the weekend, given the oil situation and potential Fed pivot talk. Will reassess Monday's open.
Replies
J
Thinking more about that oil price spike and the Fed commentary. If inflation keeps ticking up due to energy costs, they might have to hold off on those rate cuts. That would put some serious pressure on GBPUSD, especially if it breaks below that 1.3185 S2 pivot I mentioned. I might just close out my small long entirely before Monday's open, just to be safe. Risking a gap down feels like a bad move right now. Watching the CPI data closely next week regardless.
N
Hey @jessicawhite84, I get the caution, especially with the weekend approaching and all the noise. But honestly, this whole 'Fed pivot' talk feels like a bit of a red herring to me. The USD is still pretty strong despite some fluctuations. That double-top on USD/CHF is interesting though, could mean some USD weakness across the board if it breaks. I'm leaning towards a bullish move on GBPUSD here, especially if it can hold above 1.3235. The question is whether the RBA rate hike hopes for AUD/JPY will spill over sentiment-wise. I'm going to risk it and see if we can grab some liquidity higher up.
Yeah @jessicawhite84, I'm with you on tightening stops. This whole Middle East thing has me worried about the dollar, which could push GBPUSD up but also create crazy volatility. If inflation stays high from oil prices, the Fed might not cut rates soon either. Messy outlook.