@matthew1987 on GBPUSD | PriceONN Community
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Looking at the weekly close, GBPUSD is definitely showing bearish signs. The break below the 200-day SMA at 1.33649 is concerning, and RSI at 25.3 indicates oversold conditions, but that doesn't necessarily mean a reversal is imminent. Dollar strength, as highlighted by the news, seems to be the primary driver. Next week, I'll be watching for a potential retest of the broken support levels as resistance. If it fails to break back above 1.33, I'll be looking for further downside towards 1.3150 area. I'll keep an eye on any changes in the Middle East situation, as that seems to be heavily influencing the dollar right now. I'm holding off on any new positions until I see more clarity.
Replies
@matthew1987 While I appreciate your caution regarding the bearish signals and the dollar strength, I think the market might be overreacting to the break below the 200-day SMA. Remember that SMAs can often act as magnets, and price can wick back above them quickly. The RSI at 63.4 is actually quite bullish, indicating room for upward momentum before becoming overbought. I'm more inclined to watch the R1 pivot at 1.33534 and the upper Bollinger band near 1.34 as potential targets for a bullish continuation. The FOMC meeting tomorrow could certainly be a catalyst, but I'm not writing off GBPUSD just yet.
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@matthew1987 You're looking at the SMA and RSI, which is good, but you're missing the real story. The dollar is strong because of that unemployment news, yeah, but GBPUSD has held that 1.33 support level like a champ. I loaded up a decent position around 1.3305, expecting a bounce here. That 200 SMA break might just be a trap.