@ncook918 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
Interesting close on XAUUSD last Friday, finishing just shy of the 50-day SMA around 4709. Given the geopolitical backdrop with Iran escalating and that emergency Fed decision, I'm expecting a potential gap up on Monday morning. We'll need to watch the 200-day SMA resistance at 4774, but the RSI is sitting neutrally at 50.2, suggesting there's room to run if momentum builds. I'll be looking for a bullish confirmation candle on the H1 or H4 chart if we open strong.
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The conflicting news about the Fed potentially tightening versus the oil surge due to Iran is creating a lot of cross-currents. My gut feeling is that the safe-haven demand for gold will eventually win out, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern. The tokenized gold yield news is also interesting but probably a longer-term play, not affecting immediate price action much. I'm cautiously optimistic for a move higher next week, provided we don't see any major unexpected economic data releases that swing sentiment back to risk-on. I'll be managing my positions carefully over the weekend, ensuring stops are set appropriately to protect gains or limit losses in case of a sharp, unexpected move on the open. The key will be observing the initial price action on Monday and seeing if it holds the gains or fades quickly. I'm leaning towards holding a bullish bias for now, but with strict risk management in place.
Also, if we do gap up, I'm keen to see if the pivot point at 4721.32 acts as immediate resistance or if we push through towards R1 at 4725.88.
@ncook918 I appreciate your analysis on the XAUUSD close relative to the SMAs. While the geopolitical news regarding Iran and the oil prices does suggest potential upside for gold as a safe haven, I remain somewhat skeptical about a sustained rally without a clearer signal from the macro indicators. The emergency Fed announcement, in particular, introduces significant uncertainty that could override commodity-driven moves. I'm watching that 200-day SMA at 4774 closely, but I'm not convinced it will be breached without a more substantial catalyst or a clear reversal pattern forming on lower timeframes. The RSI at 38.8 also suggests we're still in a bearish zone, despite the price action not fully reflecting it yet. We could see a push towards the pivot point at 4673.02, or even S1 at 4663.8, if risk appetite returns.