@laurahall10 on USDJPY | PriceONN Community
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USDJPY still grinding higher... Anyone else think this is a bull trap before a bigger correction? RSI's getting pretty overbought on the H4. I'm tempted to open a small short position, but this thing just keeps going. Thoughts?
Replies
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Yeah, and the volume is kinda weak for this rally. Makes me even more suspicious. Could just be the quiet session, but still... Plus, I'm seeing some bearish divergence on the D1 chart. Might be nothing, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. Thinking of setting a tight stop loss just in case it decides to tank. Maybe around 159.20? Or is that too aggressive? I'm also looking at the order block around 158.50 as a potential support if it does drop. Tough call, really.
@laurahall10 I share your reservations about this USDJPY rally. The bearish divergence on D1 is definitely a red flag, and the volume profile during this New York session has been rather anemic, as you noted. While the 200 SMA at 158.55 is providing some underlying support, the proximity of the 50 SMA at 159.27 acts as immediate resistance. I'm also monitoring the S2 pivot at 158.75; a decisive break below that would confirm my suspicions for a short-term bearish move. It's a classic bull trap scenario, in my opinion, especially if we don't see significant follow-through buying before the US session closes. I've held off on any positions, preferring to wait for a clearer signal or a more opportune entry on a pullback.