Why Pakistan Could Be Sucked Into Middle East War

A Binding Agreement Under Scrutiny

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), inked between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025, has rapidly become a focal point amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. This landmark accord, designed to solidify security cooperation, stipulates that an attack on either nation is to be considered an attack on both. This has raised concerns about Pakistan potentially extending its nuclear umbrella to safeguard Saudi Arabia, further complicating the regional power dynamics and introducing a new layer of uncertainty for nations like Iran, India, and Israel. The agreement may also indicate a recalibration of Saudi Arabia's reliance on the United States in favor of a coalition involving Pakistan and China.

Recent events have placed Pakistan's commitment to this alliance under intense scrutiny. Following reported Iranian drone strikes targeting the U.S. embassy compound in Riyadh and critical Saudi infrastructure, including the Ras Tanura oil complex, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that Islamabad had cautioned Tehran against any aggression towards Saudi territory. Dar emphasized that the SMDA necessitates a unified response to any attack on either nation, a message he conveyed directly to his Iranian counterpart.

Escalation and Retaliation

Unlike previous instances where Iranian actions elicited measured responses, the current climate is markedly different. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has seemingly emboldened Iran to adopt a more aggressive posture. In a campaign dubbed "Operation Epic Fury", Tehran has unleashed a barrage of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles against Israel and several U.S.-aligned Gulf states, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has further ratcheted up tensions by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, threatening attacks on vessels and disrupting global oil and gas flows, forcing shippers to seek alternative routes.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Iranian attacks targeted Riyadh and the kingdom's eastern region. While Saudi forces claim to have intercepted the majority of the incoming missiles, the strikes on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and the Ras Tanura refinery underscore the severity of the situation.

Geopolitical Implications and Nuclear Ambiguity

Pakistan's potential involvement in the escalating conflict remains a subject of intense debate. While Foreign Minister Dar affirmed that he warned Iran against aggression toward Saudi Arabia, citing the defense agreement, analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of Pakistan directly entering the war or extending its nuclear umbrella. Such a move could contravene international nuclear treaties, notably the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The NPT, a cornerstone of global nuclear nonproliferation, aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Pakistan, along with India and Israel, has not signed the NPT and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons. The TPNW, which seeks a complete ban on nuclear weapons, has also not been acceded to by these nations. While Pakistan has never explicitly stated that it would provide nuclear protection to Saudi Arabia, the SMDA adds weight to Saudi Arabia's diplomatic position, potentially establishing a precedent for extended deterrence, according to analysts at Chatham House.