This DXY move kinda reminds me of back in '08, not gonna lie. Everyone thought the dollar was gonna tank, then BAM, safe haven bid kicked in HARD. RSI is def overbought tho, so gotta be careful. Could be a fakeout before the real drop but the geopolitical risk is a real thing...
Hey @daniel1988, interesting comparison to '08. I see what you mean about the safe-haven bid, that's always a possibility when geopolitical risks flare up. However, from a purely technical perspective, I'm not convinced this is the start of a major reversal just yet. The DXY is currently trading below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which are both bearish signals. The RSI at 45.6 is indeed neutral, but it's not showing oversold conditions that would typically precede a strong bounce. We also saw a rejection around the R1 pivot point earlier, which suggests some resistance. I'm leaning towards a range-bound scenario until we get clearer direction from upcoming economic data, like the FOMC minutes. The '08 situation had different macro conditions, so it's worth keeping that in mind when drawing parallels. What are your thoughts on the current SMA positioning relative to the '08 scenario?