@aisyahrahman79 on GBPUSD | PriceONN Community
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This GBPUSD move after the BoE pivot has strong echoes of that rally back in late 2022. Remember when the market was totally caught off guard by their policy shift? We saw a similar sharp reversal then, pushing price up quite a bit. The current RSI is looking a bit stretched on the H4 though, so watching for potential consolidation.
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Ya, looking back at 2022, that rally was pretty aggressive and lasted a good few weeks before things started to settle. The key difference now might be the broader USD weakness we're seeing; it's not just GBP strength, but USD getting hit from multiple fronts. The Fed's commentary this week about no rate cuts for 2026 is definitely a major factor weighing on the dollar, which is giving pairs like this room to breathe. I'm just cautious about chasing this current high with the RSI already in overbought territory, might be a good spot for smart money to take some profits and let things cool off before the next leg up, if any.
Hey @aisyahrahman79, interesting point about the 2022 comparison. I remember that period well, the BoE definitely caught the market off guard and it led to a sustained bullish run. Looking at the current H4 chart, price is hovering right around that 50 SMA at 1.3368, which is also basically the middle Bollinger Band. If we can get a solid candle to close above the 20 SMA at 1.3401, I'd feel more confident about another leg up, especially if DXY continues to weaken like we've seen with some of this dollar selling on the back of that softer inflation news out of Japan. But yeah, RSI is still quite neutral, so it’s a bit of a waiting game right now.