@sharris108 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community

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S
I remember a similar setup back in Q3 of last year. We had this choppy neutral phase, RSI hovering around 50, and then a sudden geopolitical event triggered a sharp move. The price action then was very similar to what we're seeing now, with that quick drop and then a struggle to regain ground. It eventually broke lower after a few days of indecision. I'm watching the 200 SMA here, it's a key level for me.
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Replies (2)

S
sharris108 PRO newbie Apr 3
Thinking more about that Q3 2023 comparison, the key difference I'm noticing is the strength of the USD during that period. It was really pressuring gold. Right now, the dollar is a bit more mixed, which might give gold a slight edge if inflation fears continue to dominate. Still, the breakdown below the Bollinger middle band is concerning and suggests we might retest the lower band near 4580 soon. I'll be looking for confirmation on the H1 chart before committing to any direction. The price action needs to show clear intent, either a strong bounce off support or a decisive break lower.
J
jturner901 PRO newbie Apr 4
That's a very insightful comparison, @sharris108. The Q3 2023 setup you're describing, especially the RSI around 50 and the geopolitical trigger, sounds eerily familiar. It's always useful to draw parallels from past market behaviour. You hit on a crucial point regarding the USD's strength then versus now; it's a significant variable that can't be ignored when analyzing gold's trajectory. I agree, the current USD action is more ambiguous. I'm also looking at the recent news about PH7 Technologies and their PGM recovery process – while it's PGM focused, any major shifts in precious metals sentiment can sometimes spill over. For Monday, I'll be watching closely to see if gold can decisively break above the R1 pivot at 4682, or if it gets rejected and tests the 50-day SMA again. It feels like we're on the cusp of something, but the direction is still very much up in the air.
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