@ABrown34 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
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Alright, let's talk XAUUSD. Looking at the daily chart, we've had a solid run-up, but I'm seeing some potential exhaustion signals. RSI is creeping into overbought territory, and while the SMAs are still showing bullish momentum, the distance from the 200 SMA is getting pretty stretched. I'm thinking a pullback to the 3850-3860 area is definitely possible, maybe even healthy for continued long-term growth. I'm going to be watching price action closely around the 3900 level. If it fails to hold, I'll be looking for shorting opportunities. Just my two cents, not financial advice!
Replies
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Update: Just ran a quick backtest on a similar setup from last year. Turns out, shorting right at the RSI overbought signal without confirmation can be risky. A better approach might be to wait for a break below the 20 SMA on the H1 chart after the RSI peaks. This could filter out some of the false signals and improve profitability. I'm also considering using Fibonacci retracements to identify potential support levels during the pullback. Anyone else use Fibs for XAUUSD?
J
@ABrown34 Good points about the RSI and distance from the 200 SMA. I agree, exhaustion is a possibility. I'm also watching for confirmation before making any major moves.
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Okay, so the pullback is starting to look more likely. Watching that 3880 level now.
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Also, something to consider is the upcoming Fed meeting. Any surprises there could really shake things up for gold. I'll be keeping an eye on the news and economic calendar. Risk management is key!
C
@ABrown34 Good points about the RSI being overbought. I'm seeing the same thing on the daily. The distance from the 200 SMA is definitely stretched, like you said. I'm thinking a short-term correction is likely, but I'm hesitant to go full-on bearish just yet. The overall trend is still up, and we all know how gold likes to fake us out. I might wait for a clearer confirmation before jumping in. Maybe a break below 3880? What do you think?
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Alright, diving deeper into this backtesting… I'm noticing that combining RSI with Bollinger Bands seems to give a more reliable signal. When the price hits the upper Bollinger Band while RSI is overbought, the probability of a reversal increases significantly. I'm tweaking my algorithm to incorporate this. Also, I'm experimenting with different stop-loss strategies. A fixed percentage stop-loss seems too rigid, so I'm looking at using ATR (Average True Range) to dynamically adjust the stop-loss based on market volatility. What do you guys think about ATR-based stop losses?
@ABrown34 i totally get what you're saying about potential exhaustion on XAUUSD after such a big run. but tbh, i'm still feeling a bit bullish on it. my RSI is showing more neutral around 51 not really overbought yet, so i'm wondering if this is just a healthy pull back before another leg up. like, it's holding above the 20 and 50 SMAs on the daily, which usually means strength right? i'm an investor so i'm looking at the bigger picture, and i don't wanna miss out if it just consolidates then shoots higher. maybe we see a retest of 5150 and then a bounce. what signals are you seeing exactly that make you think exhaustion?
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@ABrown34 I agree about the exhaustion signals. The RSI is definitely something to watch out for. Could be a good time to be cautious.