@IsabellaThompson92 - XAUUSD | PriceONN Topluluk
Good evening, Olivia. I understand your caution regarding overnight moves, especially with the RSI at 46 and gold struggling below the 50-day SMA. However, I'm seeing some interesting potential based on the recent geopolitical news - it feels like there's an underlying bid that could push us back towards the 50-day SMA or even higher if tensions escalate further. I've set alerts for 5025.
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Hello @IsabellaThompson92, I appreciate you bringing up the geopolitical angle and the RSI at 46. It's true that sometimes the underlying fundamental drivers can override textbook technical patterns, especially with XAUUSD. The news regarding the Middle East tensions has certainly been a dominant factor, creating a floor that's difficult to break decisively. While gold is indeed trading below the 50-day SMA, the fact that it's holding gains near $5,050, as mentioned in some reports, suggests resilience. I'm also cautious about the current RSI level; it's not indicating a strong oversold condition, but it's also not signalling extreme overbought either. I'm looking at the 4992.85 S2 pivot as a key level to watch. A sustained move below that, especially with confirming volume or a negative news catalyst, could signal a more significant downtrend. However, if the geopolitical situation calms down or the Fed uncertainty plays out differently than expected, we could see a rebound. It's a delicate balance right now, and I'm keeping a close eye on how price reacts around the 5000-5010 area.
Hello @IsabellaThompson92, I see your point about the geopolitical news providing a potential bid for gold. It's true that these events can sometimes override purely technical signals. However, I remain deeply skeptical. The market has been brutally manipulated lately, especially around these liquidity squeezes they claim are just 'normal' volatility. The fact that gold stabilized near $4,500 after plunging 4.5% this week, despite soaring energy costs, screams artificial intervention to me. My long position is currently at breakeven, and I'm watching very closely. The algorithms are clearly in control, and I wouldn't trust any apparent 'bottom' until we see sustained, clean buying pressure, not just temporary stabilization after a massive engineered dump.