@ava4834 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
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This whole inverse H&S thing on XAUUSD sounds like a trap waiting to happen. They love to fake out retail traders. Price is still below the 50 SMA and looking weak overall. I wouldn't be surprised if this neckline break turns into a massive bull trap, sending us back down to the lower Bollinger band around 4615. High leverage longs here are pure suicide right now, NFA btw.
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Seriously though, if that breakout is fake, we could see a quick drop right back to those pivot lows. Imagine the carnage.
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@ava4834 I hear your skepticism about the inverse H&S, and it's a valid concern. We've seen plenty of inducement patterns designed to trap breakout traders. The fact that gold is still hovering below the 50 SMA and the R1 pivot at 4790 is definitely a red flag. However, the recent UoM Consumer Sentiment numbers were quite weak, and that can sometimes push safe havens like gold higher, even if the technicals look iffy. Also, with the dollar potentially weakening on those Fed comments about patience, there might be underlying support. I'm watching the reaction around the 4750-4760 area closely. If we get some displacement through that resistance, especially with increased volume, it might invalidate the 'trap' narrative. Otherwise, you're probably right, and a return to the lower Bollinger band is on the cards.
@ava4834 I totally get what you're saying about the inverse H&S being a potential trap. It feels like that's what the big players do sometimes, make it look like a breakout so we retail folks jump in, then they dump it. I'm still kinda new to this, but I've seen my money go down too fast when I chased a move like that. My account is still recovering from buying near what I thought was the top last week. Seeing it below the 50 SMA does make me nervous too. If that neckline break is fake, then yeah, we could see a nasty drop. I'm just hoping my small investment doesn't get wiped out