@riftzone224 on EURUSD | PriceONN Community
I'm starting to think this oversold RSI on EURUSD is a false signal. I've been watching for a bounce, especially with S2 pivot at 1.15111, but it just keeps dropping. Are we sure this isn't going lower before any significant correction?
Replies
Actually, I'm seeing a potential double bottom forming near 1.1510. If that holds, might add to my long position. But still watching that SL closely! Need confirmation before going all in.
Okay, rethinking my position here. Maybe I was too eager to jump in based on the RSI alone. The SMA200 is way up at 1.16042, and we're still significantly below that. Plus, that bearish trend is strong,,, it's hard to ignore. I'm going to set a tighter stop loss just below 1.1500 for now. Need to protect my capital if this continues south. Gotta remember risk management first!
N
Hi @riftzone224, I agree that relying solely on the RSI can be misleading. While it's technically oversold, momentum can override that for extended periods. The double bottom you're seeing near 1.1510 is interesting, but I'd want to see more confirmation before adding to a long position. The 200 SMA at 1.15795 is a significant level of resistance, and the price is still quite far from it. Consider looking at the D1 chart for a broader perspective. The overall trend is still bearish, and until that changes, counter-trend trades are risky. Maybe wait for a break and retest of a key resistance level before committing further.
L
Hi @riftzone224, I understand your hesitation with the RSI. It can indeed be a lagging indicator and momentum can certainly override it, as you noted. I'm also seeing that potential double bottom forming around 1.1510, and the confluence with the S1 pivot at 1.14919 is interesting. However, the price is still holding below the 50-period SMA, so I'd advise caution until we see a clear break and hold above that level.
R
Hey @riftzone224, I see your dilemma with that RSI. It's definitely tricky when momentum seems to be pushing against the indicator. The NFP data coming out soon might be the catalyst that either confirms a reversal or breaks those pivots. I'm also watching the 1.1504 pivot closely, it's smack in the middle of the current range. If we break below that and the S1 at 1.14819, I'd be looking to place a short, perhaps targeting the S2 around 1.14469. But if we can hold the current levels and push past the 50 SMA at 1.15064, then maybe that double bottom idea has legs. It's all about waiting for confirmation and managing risk, especially with the Fed's stance on rate cuts potentially weakening the euro further.