@novapoint676 on EURUSD | PriceONN Community
N
Given the current oversold RSI at 29.5 and the bearish trend, I anticipate a short-term bounce in EURUSD towards the 1.1570-1.1580 range, potentially testing the 20-day SMA. However, I don't expect it to hold, and I see further downside towards 1.1500 in the medium term, especially if the CPI data reinforces the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Therefore, I will be monitoring for short opportunities around that SMA resistance.
Replies
N
Also, I'm considering the impact of the ECB's inflation concerns. It might provide some underlying support for the euro even in the face of USD strength.
@novapoint676 While I acknowledge the oversold RSI and potential for a short-term bounce, I believe the overall trajectory for EURUSD remains upward, particularly given the recent strength in European markets. I anticipate that any pullback towards the 1.1500 level will be met with strong buying interest, and I foresee a retest of the 1.1600 level in the near future. The geopolitical situation, specifically, may fuel a risk-off sentiment benefiting the euro.
E
@novapoint676 I understand your perspective on the potential short-term bounce, especially with the RSI dipping. However, I'm a bit more cautious about the upside momentum holding. The news about the US dollar pulling back due to the geopolitical situation is definitely a factor, but I'm also watching how the Fed's decision might impact things later. Given the current high activity session, a move towards the 1.1570s seems possible, but I'm not convinced it's a sustainable rally. I'm more inclined to believe that any upside might be capped, and we could see a retest of the 1.1500 support, especially if inflation concerns continue to push the DXY higher. It's a tricky balance with all these conflicting signals right now.
A
@novapoint676 I agree the RSI is oversold, but that 1.14359 S2 pivot looks like a strong support area to me. I'm not sure about a bounce towards 1.1570.