AUD/USD Weekly Report - Forex | PriceONN
AUD/USD’s late break of 0.7183 resistance suggests that pullback from 0.7277 has already completed at 0.7076, after defending 55 D EMA. Initial bias is back on the upside this week for retesting 0.7277 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7076 […] The post AUD/USD Weekly Report appeared first on ActionForex.

Bullish Momentum Re-emerges for AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair is displaying renewed strength, with a decisive push above the 0.7183 level indicating that the recent dip from 0.7277 has likely concluded at 0.7076. This crucial support point, which saw the pair defend the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (55 D EMA), has now shifted the immediate outlook back towards the upside.

Traders are now keenly watching for a retest of the 0.7277 high. A firm breach of this level could signal a resumption of the broader upward trend. For the present, the risk remains skewed to the upside, provided the 0.7076 support level can hold firm against any potential retreats.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis | PriceONN
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Broader Trend Context and Long-Term Projections

Zooming out, the advance from the 2024 low of 0.5913 appears to be continuing. A significant breakthrough of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from the 0.8006 peak down to the 0.5913 trough, currently situated around 0.7206, would strongly bolster the argument that the downtrend originating from the 0.8006 high in 2021 has reversed. Such a development would pave the way for a more substantial rally, potentially targeting the 0.8006 area.

However, the more immediate bullish outlook is contingent on holding the 0.6832 support in the event of a pullback. This level acts as a critical anchor for short-to-medium term sentiment.

Looking at the long-term chart, the current upswing from 0.5913 is being interpreted as the third phase of a larger pattern that began at the 0.5506 low in 2020. While it remains premature to definitively classify this move as either impulsive or corrective, the favored scenario anticipates a continuation of the rally towards 0.8006 and possibly beyond. This projection remains valid as long as the 55-week Exponential Moving Average (55 W EMA), currently tracking around 0.6804, provides a solid floor.

Reading Between the Lines

The recent action in AUD/USD presents a compelling case for renewed bullish sentiment. The defense of the 55 D EMA at 0.7076, coupled with the subsequent break of 0.7183 resistance, paints a picture of a completed corrective phase. This suggests that the larger upward trajectory, initiated from the year's low, is poised to resume.

The critical juncture for confirming this bullish thesis lies at the 0.7277 level. A successful challenge and breach of this prior high would not only resume the larger uptrend but also solidify the reversal of the multi-year downtrend from the 2021 peak. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7206 serves as a key intermediate hurdle, with its clearance further validating the bullish narrative.

For traders, the immediate focus should be on the 0.7076 support. A failure to hold this level would introduce significant downside risk, potentially invalidating the near-term bullish bias. Conversely, sustained trading above 0.7183, and especially above 0.7277, opens the door to more significant gains. The long-term perspective, anchored by the 55 W EMA at 0.6804, suggests that even a deeper pullback would likely find support, reinforcing the view of a larger upward move still in play.

The Australian Dollar's performance is often closely linked to global growth prospects and commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal. Should the current bullish momentum in AUD/USD continue, it could reflect improving sentiment towards the Australian economy and potentially signal a broader risk-on environment. This could have knock-on effects on other commodity-linked currencies and global equity markets.

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