Chart Alert: WTI Crude Oil Rally Almost Reached $102.25, Risk of Minor Setback Towards $88.36

Key takeaways

• Oil rebound driven by ongoing conflict risks: West Texas Intermediate crude oil has rebounded 32% to around $101 after a sharp prior correction, as the US–Iran war 2026, now in its 17th day, continues to fuel concerns over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Medium-term bullish bias remains intact: Prediction market data from Polymarket suggests the highest probability of a ceasefire only by June, implying geopolitical risk premiums may persist and support oil’s broader uptrend in the coming months.
• Short-term pullback risk near resistance: Technically, WTI is approaching $105.85 key resistance, where momentum appears to be fading. Failure to break higher could trigger a minor corrective pullback toward $92.60–$88.36, while a breakout above $105.85 would reopen upside toward $116–$119.

  The price actions of the West Texas (WTI) crude oil have staged an expected bullish reversal after the two-day decline of around 35% from its four-year high printed on last Monday, 9 March 2026, to the 11 March 2026 low.

  So far, it has gained by 32% to hit an intraday high of $101.19/barrel in today’s Asia session, 16 March 2026, as the US-Iran war enters the 17th day.

  Before we dive into the technical analysis and relevant macro elements of WTI crude oil, here are the latest headlines surrounding the US-Iran conflict in the last 24 hours.

  • The key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates was hit again on Monday, the latest in a series of strikes on the site that’s the only outlet for the country that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Dubai resumes flights after a temporary suspension due to a drone incident.
  • US President Donald Trump is “demanding” that other countries help secure transit through the Strait of Hormuz; Australia and Japan said they don’t have plans to send warships to the region now.
  • Trump again claimed the US and Iran are in talks and said any deal must include Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran has said it hasn’t asked for negotiations or a ceasefire.

    Prediction market’s highest probability of a ceasefire is in June

    Fig. 1: Polymarket US-Iran ceasefire timing odds as of 16 Mar 2026 (