Non-Farm Payrolls Large Miss and Oil Explodes Higher to $90 – A Stagflation Cocktail Ahead of Weekend Risk

This morning is sending a nasty look for Markets, as Oil continues to explode higher amid Middle East tensions. At the same time, US labor data keeps showing volatility, this time to the downside.

It is a dark day for risk assets, and the fundamentals aren’t going to help – particularly with a miss in Retail Sales rubbing salt in the wound, it seems that prior bounces in US data could have been a seasonal effect of Holidays/New Year hiring and consumption. We could now be facing a hangover.

Morning US Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Non-Farm Payrolls just released at -92K vs +56K expected, a significant (-148K) miss!

Such a reversal in the data can’t fail to raise questions about actual job displacement from new AI technologies and whether the Federal Reserve is really getting behind the curve.

The issue for the Central Bank is that inflation is certainly bouncing higher despite lower Retail Sales – so combine a weaker jobs Market, consumption, and elevated inflation, and conclusions about stagflation could be reached quickly – and with decent reasoning, too!

With Energy prices shooting higher throughout the week, it is certain that inflation expectations are not going to ease anytime soon – the only thing that could soothe them at this point is an actual pricing of slower consumption ahead, but that wouldn’t fare well for the US economy.

Goods-producing, Private Education, and Services took the largest hit, with gains only seen in Financials and Wholesale Trades.

We will provide a quick outlook on the Market before diving into WTI (US) Oil Charts to get ready for what could be another volatile weekend.

A Nasty Market Picture

Stock and Energy Product Futures – Courtesy of Finviz

There goes risk-appetite, as a close to 10% rise in daily WTI prices will keep raising inflation expectations and that tends to coincide with major repricings in Equity markets

An in-depth Stock Market coming at the top of the morning.

Cryptos Are Not Getting Spared

Bitcoin 4H Chart – March 6, 2026 –