Risk-On “Taco” Redux: Intraday Outlook on NASDAQ 100, Djia, AUD/USD and Gold - Forex | PriceONN
Key takeaways A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain […] The post Risk-On “Taco” Redux: Intraday Outlook on NASDAQ 100, Djia, AUD/USD and Gold appeared first on ActionForex.

Key takeaways

  • A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
  • 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain vulnerable to reversal if key support levels fail, particularly given the absence of a signed agreement and published deal details.
  • Several hidden risks remain unresolved, including sanctions relief terms, Iran’s proposed transit fees for Hormuz shipping, and the possibility of unilateral Israeli military actions that could rapidly derail the current optimism and trigger renewed market volatility.

    A remarkable turn of events, the announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran in today’s early Asia session (Monday, 15 June) to end hostilities and reopen the vital energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a massive spark of risk-on behaviour in global markets.

    US President Trump has already posted “teasers” on his social media since last Friday, 12 June, despite Iran not confirming that an imminent deal will be signed on Sunday. Interestingly, this interim deal materialised after Trump backed down on his “harsh threat” to attack Iran on the last Thursday, giving rise to the “Trump always chickens out-TACO” trade narrative.

    The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and 100 staged a tremendous gap up today, rallying by 2% and 3%, respectively, and almost erased 90% of the losses inflicted by the prior 2-week minor corrective decline from their respective all-time highs printed at the start of June 2026 to the 11 June 2026 low.

    Let’s look at the intraday technical charts of several key instruments that benefit from this raging near-term bullish sentiment before we tackle the “hidden risks”.

    100 – Gap up above 20-day moving average

    Fig. 1: US CFD minor trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (

Gold USD AUD Forex Trade S&p 500 Nasdaq Dow jones Rally
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