Seven central banks, one energy shock: Critical monetary policy week

The coming week represents a rare convergence of global monetary policy decisions, with seven major central banks meeting within days of each other. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank will all announce policy decisions, making it arguably the most consequential week for global macro markets in 2026 so far.

What makes these meetings particularly significant is the dramatic shift in the global inflation outlook. Escalating military conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supply routes and driven oil and gas prices sharply higher. The resulting energy shock is forcing policymakers and investors alike to reconsider whether the global easing cycle may need to be reversed.

Federal Reserve – March 18

FOMC meeting will be the central event of the week. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. However, the key issue is how policymakers respond to the recent oil shock.

Attention will focus on the updated dot plot and economic projections. Powell’s messaging on energy inflation will be critical. If he signals the Fed will look through the oil spike as transitory, markets may interpret that as dovish. But emphasis on potential second-round inflation effects in wages and services would signal a more hawkish stance.

Reserve Bank of Australia – March 17

The RBA decision opens the policy week, and Australia may deliver the most immediate policy action. According to a , 23 of 30 economists expect a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85%. The median forecast now sees rates reaching 4.35% by the end of 2026.

The focus will be on whether Governor Michele Bullock signals that further tightening remains possible. Policymakers may frame the expected hike as insurance against inflation risks tied to the global energy shock, while leaving the door open for additional moves depending on the upcoming Q1 CPI report.

Bank of Canada – March 18

Governor Tiff Macklem’s tone will be closely watched, particularly after Canada’s weak February employment data. Markets will also focus on how the BoC views the oil surge, which presents a mixed macro signal for Canada-supporting energy exports while potentially weighing on broader economic activity.

Bank of Japan – March 19

Two new members are expected to join the board later in Q2. Despite being viewed as more reflationary, most economists believe their presence will not prevent the BoJ from continuing its gradual tightening path.

Bank of England – March 19

The BoE is also expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with about 85% of economists supporting a pause. This represents a major shift from February, when most economists expected the BoE to continue cutting rates. Markets now see the next rate cut delayed until September, reflecting renewed inflation risks from higher energy prices.

As usual, the key surprise factor lies in the vote split within the Monetary Policy Committee. While unlikely, any hawkish dissent favoring a rate hike would signal growing concern about inflation persistence.

European Central Bank – March 19

The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2%, with more than 90% of economists forecasting no change through 2026. Only a handful of economists expect either a hike or a cut this year.

The main focus will be the updated staff projections, particularly inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. A significant upward revision in the 2026 HICP forecast-especially above 2.3%-could signal a hawkish shift in policy guidance.

President Christine Lagarde’s tone will also be critical, especially regarding the risk of stagflation. Markets will listen closely for any reference to recession risks as Europe grapples with the economic consequences of higher energy prices.

Swiss National Bank – March 19

The SNB is expected to keep rates at 0.00%. With the Swiss franc benefiting from safe-haven demand during the geopolitical turmoil, the SNB’s main concern will likely be preventing excessive currency strength.

For currency markets, the key message will be whether the SNB signals greater willingness to intervene in FX markets. Any indication that policymakers are prepared to sell francs aggressively to cap appreciation-particularly against Euro-could have immediate implications for CHF pairs.