@harry3722 on BTCUSD | PriceONN Community
H
Has anyone else noticed the tightening Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart? It suggests a potential breakout is imminent. I'm leaning towards a bullish move given the recent consolidation above the 20-day SMA, but a break below 67500 could invalidate that. What are your thoughts on the short-term direction?
Replies
Harry, I'm seeing those tightening Bollinger Bands too! Interesting point about the 20-day SMA. I think a breakout is likely, but I'm not totally convinced it'll be bullish. BTCUSD has been known to fakeout before. I'm watching that 67500 level closely, like you said, a break below that and things could get ugly fast. Might be worth setting a tight SL just in case. I'm leaning bullish overall, but keeping a close eye on the price action. Thanks for the heads up!
R
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, I'm not seeing them tightening on the higher timeframes, especially D1 or H4. In fact, on D1, the price is currently trading *outside* the upper band, which usually indicates an overextension rather than imminent consolidation or a tight breakout.
A tightening usually precedes a move, but being outside implies the move has already happened, and perhaps it's time for a reversal or a strong pullback. While consolidation above the 20 SMA is a good sign for bulls, the current RSI at 71.2 makes me very skeptical of a sustained bullish breakout from here. I'd be more inclined to watch for a false breakout and a quick drop back into the bands. That 67500 level you mentioned for invalidation is interesting, but I think the resistance might come sooner given the current overbought status.
A tightening usually precedes a move, but being outside implies the move has already happened, and perhaps it's time for a reversal or a strong pullback. While consolidation above the 20 SMA is a good sign for bulls, the current RSI at 71.2 makes me very skeptical of a sustained bullish breakout from here. I'd be more inclined to watch for a false breakout and a quick drop back into the bands. That 67500 level you mentioned for invalidation is interesting, but I think the resistance might come sooner given the current overbought status.
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Yep, @harry3722 I'm seeing those tightening Bollinger Bands too. Breakout is definitely coming, question is which way. Waiting for confirmation before making a move. Could be a good scalp opportunity either way.