@PrimeMover81 - USDJPY | PriceONN Topluluk

Actually, thinking about that Fed commentary about rate cuts... if they're really pushing back on any 2026 cuts, that should technically be bullish for USDJPY long-term, right? But the current price action is so bearish, and the RSI is still super low. It's like the market is confused or just doesn't believe what the Fed is saying yet. Maybe it's just the low liquidity in this session causing weird moves. I'll probably check the DXY again before I try to sleep, see if that's giving any clearer signals. This whole situation with the Iran conflict and the impact on European banks is adding another layer of complexity too, really makes you second guess every setup.

@PrimeMover81 Yeah, the SMAs are still looking bearish, but that RSI dip was crazy. I dunno man, I'm always skeptical of these huge reversals on low volume weekends. Feels like smart money is just setting up for a trap. The Fed talk is noise until we see actual rate cut action. I'm leaning towards more chop or a quick drop early week.

@PrimeMover81 I get the confusion, the SMAs are definitely lagging indicators here, still showing bearish sentiment from the previous move. That RSI dip to 24 was indeed aggressive, and it's pulled back nicely, now hovering around 60. The key for me is that price is now trading above the 50 SMA and pushing towards the 200 SMA, which is flattening out a bit. I'm not seeing a 'dead cat bounce' yet, more like a solid recovery attempt. Smart money often uses these extreme RSI readings to position. The Fed commentary is also a good point; if they are truly hawkish about rates, USDJPY should find support here. I'm watching that R1 pivot at 159.147 closely, a clean break above could signal further upside.