@osmith697 on BTCUSD | PriceONN Community
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BTCUSD's been showing weakness lately. The 20 SMA is about to cross below the 50 SMA, which could signal further downside. RSI is neutral at 45, so not much help there. Watching for a break below the lower Bollinger Band around 67040.
Replies
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Update: Just saw it dipped below 67000 briefly. Could be a fakeout, but keeping a close eye on it. If it holds below, might consider a short position.
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@osmith697 Agreed, the 20 SMA crossing below the 50 SMA is a bearish sign. But i'm a little worried about a potential fakeout. Need more confirmation before entering a large short position tbh.
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@osmith697, your observation about the potential bearish crossover is valid, but I would caution against placing too much emphasis on the SMA crossover alone. The RSI, while neutral now, could quickly shift as momentum builds. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands are relatively tight, indicating low volatility, which could precede a significant price movement. It's crucial to monitor the price action around the 200 SMA at approximately 68000. A failure to break above this level would strengthen the bearish scenario you outlined.
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@osmith697, your observation regarding the potential SMA crossover is well-noted. It does present a concerning signal. However, the 200 SMA is still trending upwards, and the price remains above it. I am inclined to believe that the current weakness may be a temporary pullback before another leg up. A decisive break below the 67000 level, especially the lower Bollinger Band, would change my outlook considerably. We should watch the volume as well for confirmation of the trend.
@osmith697 I'm not seeing the same downside signal, tbh. While the 20 SMA *might* cross the 50 SMA, the price is still holding above both. Plus, Bollinger Bands are widening, which could indicate increased volatility but not necessarily a bearish trend. I'm leaning towards a fakeout before another leg up. But hey, that's just me and my crystal ball.