@MHarris41 on XAUUSD | PriceONN Community
M
Saw a quick YouTube analysis saying gold could really break past $4900 soon. They mentioned some big fund buying it up. Hope it's true, my tiny position needs a boost.
Replies
M
Yeah, that inducement thing makes sense. Gotta watch out for those traps.
@MHarris41 Hey Megan, I saw that analysis too, but honestly, I'm not convinced about a push past 4900 right now. The Asian session has been pretty tame, mostly range-bound between the 50 and 200 SMA. We're seeing decent selling pressure around the 4800 mark, and the RSI is sitting at 45, not exactly screaming bullish. Remember how we saw that fakeout around 4850 a few weeks back before it tanked? Smart money might be doing something similar here, creating inducement before a move lower. I'm personally holding a small short from 4815, SL at 4830. NFA, of course, but I'd be cautious chasing that upside on a whim. Let's see how London opens.
J
Hey @linda1992, I see your point about the Asian session being quiet, and the SMAs are definitely bunched up around that 4730-4740 area. However, I'm looking at the H4 chart, and there's a bit of bullish divergence forming on the RSI. It's subtle, but if we get some decent volume coming in with the London open, we might see a push towards R1 at 4749. The news about the Strait of Hormuz could also add some underlying support for gold, even if the dollar is holding firm for now. I'm not saying it's a sure thing to break 4900 as @MHarris41 mentioned, but the setup isn't entirely bearish either. Need to see how the next couple of hours unfold.