Chart Alert: EUR/USD Finds Support as ECB Hawkishness Offsets Fed Strength Ahead of NFP
Key takeaways
- EUR/USD remains resilient ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more aggressive tightening path than the Federal Reserve despite weak Eurozone growth.
- Interest-rate expectations are becoming increasingly supportive for the euro, with the Eurozone-US policy rate differential narrowing as markets price additional ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve faces a more balanced growth-versus-inflation trade-off.
- Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD may be forming a near-term base above key channel support at 1.1580, with improving momentum signalling a potential short-term recovery toward the 1.1645–1.1720 resistance zone.
Ahead of today’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the EUR/USD pair has been grinding sideways around the 1.1610-1.1620 zone, showing resilience amid a fundamentally strong US Dollar environment.
Diverging growth vs. converging hawkishness
The primary catalyst today will be the US labour market data. the US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May, representing a slowdown from April’s 115,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
A “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium continues to anchor the US labour market, keeping conditions stable enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its higher-for-longer stance. In fact, market pricing from the Fed funds futures market currently reflects a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed at its December 2026 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Earlier this week, mixed signals, from stronger ADP and JOLTS data to an uptick in weekly jobless claims (225K), have kept traders cautious, clipping the USD slightly in recent sessions.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro is being supported by an aggressively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Despite the Eurozone facing stagflation risks, with Q1 GDP growth a meagre 0.1% q/q, inflation remains sticky, hitting 3.2% y/y, largely driven by energy shocks.
Further steepening of the Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread
Fig. 1: Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread as of 5 Jun 2026 (
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