Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Goldman Sachs has once again revised its oil price outlook, now expecting Brent crude to trade at $71 per barrel in the final quarter of the year, and WTI to average $67 per barrel over the same period, citing the bank’s analysts.

The investment bank’s earlier price outlook saw Brent crude at $66 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026 and WTI at $62 per barrel. At the moment, Brent crude is hovering around $100 per barrel, and WTI is above $90 per barrel.

Goldman’s revision was based on an assumption that oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz would be severely constrained, averaging just 10% of pre-war levels, for a period of 21 days, followed by a month of gradual recovery. In their previous update, Goldman analysts had assumed a disruption lasting only 10 days.

Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency’s members agreed to make an emergency release of crude from inventories to stabilize prices, at an all-time high of 400 million barrels. Goldman analysts had modeled a release of some 254 million barrels plus 31 million barrels from Russia. Such a release, according to the analysts, would reduce the blow to global oil supply by 50%.

The report added, citing unnamed sources, that the U.S. Navy has repeatedly refused to provide an escort to vessels, saying that the risk of new strikes is too high for the moment.