Hormuz Tanker Crossings Sink to Lowest Level Since May as War Risk Spikes
A Chokepoint Under Pressure
The vital Strait of Hormuz witnessed an alarming drop in oil tanker activity on Thursday, with only a single vessel navigating its waters. This marks the lowest transit volume observed since May 7th. The stark reduction in traffic comes as geopolitical anxieties in the region have surged this week, propelling crude oil prices back above the significant $100 per barrel threshold.
Data from Kpler's vessel-tracking system, as reported, indicated that while three tankers made the passage on Wednesday, that figure dramatically contracted to just one by Thursday. The vessel in question was the New Giant, a supertanker carrying approximately 2 million barrels of Basrah crude originating from Iraq. Its departure from the Strait on Thursday signals a move towards its destination, with Chinese port Rizhao anticipated to receive the cargo around mid-August.
Adding to the concern, no tankers were recorded making an inbound journey through the Strait into the Persian Gulf on the same day. This dramatic slowdown at one of the world's most crucial energy transit points raises significant questions about supply chain stability.
Red Sea Routes Face Their Own Hurdles
Meanwhile, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint in the Red Sea, has remained comparatively robust. This resilience persists despite ongoing Houthi attacks and threats against maritime traffic. The Houthis, an Iran-aligned group operating out of Yemen, have emerged as a growing concern for oil supply originating from the Middle East, particularly impacting routes that serve as Saudi Arabia's primary export pathway in the absence of normal Hormuz flows.
However, the situation in the Red Sea is not without its complications. Observations suggest that some tankers have altered course, heading north within the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal. This maneuver is a direct response to avoid potential targeting by the Houthi forces. Such rerouting has substantial implications for delivery timelines.
Voyages rerouted via the Suez Canal, subsequently traversing the Mediterranean and then navigating around the southern tip of Africa, can extend energy commodity delivery times to Asia by as much as three times compared to a direct passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This extended transit period can disrupt supply schedules and increase operational costs.
In response to these evolving risks, Saudi Aramco, the Kingdom's colossal oil producer, has begun offering crude loadings from Sidi Kerir, an Egyptian port situated on the Mediterranean Sea. This strategic move allows the company to bypass the increasingly volatile maritime routes and cater to clients who rely on more predictable delivery mechanisms, even if they involve longer transit times.
The Bigger Picture
Commodity analysts at ING highlighted the gravity of the escalating situation. They pointed out that
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