Oil ($CL_F) Impulsive Wave Structure Suggests Further Losses - Forex | PriceONN
The short‑term Elliott Wave view on Oil indicates that after spiking to $119.48 in response to the war with Iran, prices have moved sideways for several months. The initial decline from that peak to $76.73 on March 11, 2026 appeared impulsive and likely completed wave (A). Following that move, Oil consolidated in a triangle‑like structure […] The post Oil ($CL_F) Impulsive Wave Structure Suggests Further Losses appeared first on ActionForex.

Crude Oil's Technical Crossroads

The energy market is at a critical juncture, with the latest technical signals on crude oil futures suggesting a possible extension of recent losses. After an initial surge to $119.48, reportedly triggered by escalated tensions with Iran, the commodity experienced several months of range-bound trading. This period of indecision followed a sharp decline from its highs, a move that concluded at $76.73 on March 11, 2026. This initial downward thrust is being interpreted by some analysts as an impulsive wave, potentially marking the completion of a larger corrective phase.

The subsequent price action has been characterized by a complex consolidation pattern, resembling a triangle formation. Within this structure, a rebound to $109.62 was tentatively labeled as a countertrend move, a wave (B). Since then, the market has resumed its downward trajectory, initiating what is expected to be wave (C). However, the conviction behind this bearish outlook hinges on a clear breach of the earlier low established at $76.73. Without this decisive break, the narrative remains incomplete and open to alternative interpretations.

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Navigating the Downside Momentum

The immediate price sequence from the $109.62 pivot point has unfolded with a series of lower lows and lower highs. A move down to $105.65 was followed by a corrective bounce to $109.20. The market then pushed lower again, reaching $96.94. Another brief recovery stalled at $102.66. Current expectations point towards further downward pressure, aiming to complete a five-wave sequence to conclude the initial phase of a larger downtrend. This would signify the end of wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave count.

Upon the conclusion of this initial wave 1, a corrective rally, designated as wave 2, is anticipated. This bounce is expected to retrace a portion of the losses incurred since the May 19, 2026 high. Such corrections typically unfold in a three or seven wave pattern. The overarching sentiment remains bearish as long as the critical resistance level at $109.62 holds firm. Any rallies observed from current levels are expected to be transient, failing within a three, seven, or eleven-swing pattern, thereby reinforcing the likelihood of continued weakness.

Reading Between the Lines

The current technical setup on crude oil, specifically Light Crude Oil (CL_F), presents a picture of a mature bearish cycle. The structure suggests that downward momentum is more probable than a sustained recovery in the near term. This perspective implies that traders should remain vigilant for further declines rather than anticipating significant upside reversals. The key determinant for confirming this bearish thesis remains the break below the March 2026 low. Market participants are closely watching this level as a confirmation point for the next phase of potential selling pressure.

The geopolitical backdrop, while a catalyst for the initial spike, now appears to be secondary to the evolving technical pattern. The market seems to be digesting past events, and the current price action is more reflective of internal wave structures rather than immediate headline reactions. This divergence between fundamental triggers and technical progression highlights the importance of adhering to a structured analytical framework. The confluence of a potential impulsive decline and a key resistance level suggests a carefully managed risk approach is warranted for any positions in the oil market.

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