Weekly Market Outlook: March 9, 2026 – March 13, 2026 (Week 11)
Executive Summary
Week 11 promises to be eventful, with key economic data releases potentially shaping market sentiment. Traders will be closely watching the US CPI data for indications of inflation trends, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. The US dollar is expected to remain strong, driven by positive economic data and safe-haven demand. Oil markets are anticipated to experience continued volatility due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. This weekly outlook provides a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes, highlighting key levels and potential trading opportunities for the week ahead. Remember to check our daily bulletin for intraday updates and chart analysis.
US Dollar & DXY Outlook
The Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.571, showing a slight daily decrease of 0.19%. However, the overall technical outlook remains bullish on the daily and weekly timeframes, supported by positive MACD Hist values. The 1-hour timeframe indicates a potential short-term pullback, with the RSI at 41.0 and a 'SELL' signal. However, the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes all show 'BUY' signals, suggesting underlying strength. Traders will be monitoring key economic data releases, particularly the US CPI, which could provide further impetus for dollar strength. A break above R1 at 99.120 could open the door to further gains, while a drop below S1 at 98.370 could signal a short-term correction.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 99.870 |
| R2 | 99.490 |
| R1 | 99.120 |
| Pivot | 98.740 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 98.370 |
| S2 | 97.990 |
| S3 | 97.620 |
| Fib 61.8% | 96.770 |
Forex Majors Outlook
EUR/USD closed at 1.16115, up slightly by 0.04% on the day. The overall sentiment for EUR/USD is bearish, with 'SELL' signals on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes. The RSI on the daily timeframe is 34.3, indicating oversold conditions, but this might not be enough to trigger a significant reversal. The pair will likely face headwinds from a strong dollar and concerns about the Eurozone's economic outlook. A break below S1 at 1.15614 could lead to further declines, while a move above R1 at 1.16499 would be needed to alleviate the bearish pressure.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 1.17384 |
| R2 | 1.16925 |
| R1 | 1.16499 |
| Pivot | 1.16040 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 1.15614 |
| S2 | 1.15155 |
| S3 | 1.14729 |
| Fib 61.8% | 1.19000 |
GBP/USD closed at 1.33958, gaining 0.32% for the day. The technical picture is mixed. While the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show 'BUY' signals, the daily and weekly charts indicate 'SELL' signals. The daily RSI is at 41.4, suggesting potential for further downside. The pair could face pressure from concerns about the UK's economic growth. Key levels to watch include R1 at 1.33938 and S1 at 1.33047. A sustained break above R1 may signal a short-term bullish reversal, but the overall trend remains bearish.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 1.34829 |
| R2 | 1.34343 |
| R1 | 1.33938 |
| Pivot | 1.33452 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 1.33047 |
| S2 | 1.32561 |
| S3 | 1.32156 |
| Fib 61.8% | 1.36000 |
USD/JPY closed at 157.80, up 0.16% on the day. The pair remains in a bullish trend, with 'BUY' signals across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 61.7, indicating strong momentum. However, the Stochastic %K is at 86.0, suggesting the pair may be overbought in the short term. Traders will be watching for any signs of intervention from the Bank of Japan. Key levels to watch include R1 at 158.11 and S1 at 156.72. A break above R1 could lead to further gains towards R2 at 158.68, while a drop below S1 could trigger a correction.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 159.51 |
| R2 | 158.68 |
| R1 | 158.11 |
| Pivot | 157.28 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 156.72 |
| S2 | 155.88 |
| S3 | 155.32 |
| Fib 61.8% | 154.90 |
AUD/USD closed at 0.70244, up 0.26% on the day. The technical outlook is mixed. The 1-hour chart shows a 'BUY' signal, while the 4-hour and daily charts show 'SELL' signals. The weekly chart is bullish. The daily RSI is at 50.8, indicating neutral momentum. The pair is likely to be influenced by global risk sentiment and commodity prices. Key levels to watch include R1 at 0.70720 and S1 at 0.69566. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 0.71874 |
| R2 | 0.71378 |
| R1 | 0.70720 |
| Pivot | 0.70224 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 0.69566 |
| S2 | 0.69070 |
| S3 | 0.68412 |
| Fib 61.8% | 0.68000 |
NZD/USD closed at 0.58981, up 0.09% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish, with 'SELL' signals on the 4-hour and daily timeframes. The daily RSI is at 43.1, indicating potential for further downside. The pair will likely be influenced by global risk sentiment and New Zealand's economic data. Key levels to watch include R1 at 0.59361 and S1 at 0.58606. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The weekly chart shows a 'BUY' signal, adding some complexity to the overall outlook.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 0.60116 |
| R2 | 0.59796 |
| R1 | 0.59361 |
| Pivot | 0.59041 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 0.58606 |
| S2 | 0.58286 |
| S3 | 0.57851 |
| Fib 61.8% | 0.59000 |
Precious Metals Outlook
Gold closed at 5,171.21, up 1.78% on the day. The technical outlook is bullish across all timeframes. The weekly RSI is at 75.1, indicating strong momentum. The daily MACD Hist is negative, but trending towards positive. The price will likely be influenced by inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. A break above R1 at 5,166.71 could lead to further gains towards R2 at 5,252.60, while a drop below S1 at 5,023.02 could signal a short-term correction. Traders will be watching US CPI data closely. Remember to check our daily bulletin for intraday updates and detailed chart analysis.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 5,310.40 |
| R2 | 5,252.60 |
| R1 | 5,166.71 |
| Pivot | 5,108.91 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 5,023.02 |
| S2 | 4,965.22 |
| S3 | 4,879.33 |
| Fib 61.8% | 4,779.37 |
Silver closed at 84.231, up 2.52% on the day. The technical outlook is mixed. The 1-hour and weekly charts show 'BUY' signals, while the daily chart shows a 'SELL' signal. The daily RSI is at 49.7, indicating neutral momentum. The price will likely be influenced by industrial demand and precious metals sentiment. Key levels to watch include R1 at 84.950 and S1 at 79.920. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 89.990 |
| R2 | 87.750 |
| R1 | 84.950 |
| Pivot | 82.710 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 79.920 |
| S2 | 77.670 |
| S3 | 74.880 |
| Fib 61.8% | 86.010 |
Energy Markets Outlook
Brent Crude closed at 65.73, up 1.96% on the day. The technical outlook is bullish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 60.0, indicating strong momentum. The price will likely be influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply/demand dynamics. A break above R1 at 65.42 could lead to further gains towards R2 at 66.36, while a drop below S1 at 63.61 could signal a short-term correction.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 67.23 |
| R2 | 66.36 |
| R1 | 65.42 |
| Pivot | 64.55 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 63.61 |
| S2 | 62.74 |
| S3 | 61.80 |
| Fib 61.8% | 62.07 |
WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude closed at 90.66, up a significant 15.02% on the day. The technical outlook is extremely bullish across all timeframes, with the daily RSI at 88.9, indicating overbought conditions. The price will likely be influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. A break above R1 at 82.29 could lead to further gains towards R2 at 85.75, while a drop below S1 at 75.18 could signal a correction. The Fibonacci level of 83.84 may act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 89.40 |
| R2 | 85.75 |
| R1 | 82.29 |
| Pivot | 78.64 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 75.18 |
| S2 | 71.53 |
| S3 | 68.07 |
| Fib 61.8% | 69.83 |
Cryptocurrency Outlook
Bitcoin closed at 66,927, down 0.78% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 44.5, indicating potential for further downside. The price will likely be influenced by regulatory developments and institutional adoption. Key levels to watch include R1 at 68,359 and S1 at 66,740. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The 20-day SMA at 67,280 could act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 69,978 |
| R2 | 69,263 |
| R1 | 68,359 |
| Pivot | 67,644 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 66,740 |
| S2 | 66,025 |
| S3 | 65,121 |
| Fib 61.8% | 81,962 |
Ethereum closed at 1,937.76, down 1.55% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 43.4, indicating potential for further downside. Key levels to watch include R1 at 1,992.79 and S1 at 1,944.55. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The 20-day SMA at 1,953.46 could act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 2,041.03 |
| R2 | 2,017.36 |
| R1 | 1,992.79 |
| Pivot | 1,969.12 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 1,944.55 |
| S2 | 1,920.88 |
| S3 | 1,896.31 |
| Fib 61.8% | 2,746.57 |
Stock Indices Outlook
The S&P 500 closed at 6,743, down 1.07% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 39.6, indicating potential for further downside. Key levels to watch include R1 at 6,883 and S1 at 6,759. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The 20-day SMA at 6,796 could act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 7,006 |
| R2 | 6,949 |
| R1 | 6,883 |
| Pivot | 6,826 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 6,759 |
| S2 | 6,702 |
| S3 | 6,636 |
| Fib 61.8% | 6,896 |
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 24,657, down 1.25% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 44.0, indicating potential for further downside. Key levels to watch include R1 at 25,202 and S1 at 24,734. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The 20-day SMA at 24,904 could act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 25,669 |
| R2 | 25,435 |
| R1 | 25,202 |
| Pivot | 24,968 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 24,734 |
| S2 | 24,500 |
| S3 | 24,267 |
| Fib 61.8% | 25,421 |
The Dow Jones 30 closed at 47,516, down 0.76% on the day. The technical outlook is bearish across all timeframes. The daily RSI is at 33.2, indicating potential for further downside. Key levels to watch include R1 at 48,618 and S1 at 47,344. A sustained break above R1 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below S1 could lead to further declines. The 20-day SMA at 47,720 could act as short-term resistance.
| Resistance | Price |
|---|
| R3 | 49,892 |
| R2 | 49,359 |
| R1 | 48,618 |
| Pivot | 48,085 |
| Support | Price |
|---|
| S1 | 47,344 |
| S2 | 46,811 |
| S3 | 46,070 |
| Fib 61.8% | 49,169 |
Economic Calendar Preview
Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ - Mon, Mar 09 23:50 UTC
Forecast: - | Previous: 0.1%
| Scenario | Condition | Expected Impact |
|---|
| Better than expected | Actual > [forecast] | JPY strengthens - Positive GDP growth could signal economic recovery in Japan, increasing demand for the yen. |
| In line with forecast | Actual ≈ [forecast] | Neutral reaction |
| Worse than expected | Actual < [forecast] | JPY weakens - Negative or lower than expected GDP growth could raise concerns about the Japanese economy, decreasing demand for the yen. |
U.S. Existing Home Sales - Tue, Mar 10 14:00 UTC
Forecast: - | Previous: 3.91M
| Scenario | Condition | Expected Impact |
|---|
| Better than expected | Actual > [forecast] | USD strengthens - Higher home sales could indicate a strong US housing market, boosting confidence in the US economy. |
| In line with forecast | Actual ≈ [forecast] | Neutral reaction |
| Worse than expected | Actual < [forecast] | USD weakens - Lower home sales could signal a weakening US housing market, raising concerns about the US economy. |
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM - Wed, Mar 11 12:30 UTC
Forecast: - | Previous: 0.2%
| Scenario | Condition | Expected Impact |
|---|
| Better than expected | Actual > [forecast] | USD strengthens - Higher inflation could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. |
| In line with forecast | Actual ≈ [forecast] | Neutral reaction |
| Worse than expected | Actual < [forecast] | USD weakens - Lower inflation could lead to expectations of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. |
U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM - Wed, Mar 11 12:30 UTC
Forecast: - | Previous: 0.3%
| Scenario | Condition | Expected Impact |
|---|
| Better than expected | Actual > [forecast] | USD strengthens - Higher core inflation could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. |
| In line with forecast | Actual ≈ [forecast] | Neutral reaction |
| Worse than expected | Actual < [forecast] | USD weakens - Lower core inflation could lead to expectations of looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. |
Weekly Trading Bias
- US Dollar: Bullish, driven by positive economic data and safe-haven demand.
- Forex Majors: Mixed, with potential for volatility due to economic data releases.
- Precious Metals: Bullish, supported by inflation expectations and geopolitical risks.
- Energy Markets: Bullish, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bearish, influenced by regulatory developments and market sentiment.
- Stock Indices: Bearish, facing headwinds from economic uncertainty and rising interest rates.
Overall risk appetite is assessed as cautious, with investors closely monitoring economic data and geopolitical developments. Traders should remain nimble and adjust their positions accordingly. Remember to check our daily bulletin for intraday updates and chart analysis.
