Brent Crude Oil: Decline Amid US–Iran Ceasefire
PriceONN Editorial Desk
Multi-source verification
Geopolitical Calm Cools Oil Market
The scent of peace has wafted through the Persian Gulf, and it's having a dramatic effect on the oil market. Following the surprising announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran on June 14, the once-lofty geopolitical risk premium attached to crude oil prices has rapidly diminished. This shift signals a profound change in market expectations, as participants begin to price in the likely resumption of unimpeded oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
This developing scenario is directly impacting trading desks. The anticipation of increased supply, coupled with the receding threat of supply disruptions, is encouraging a wave of profit-taking among those who had built long positions during the preceding price surge. The market's focus is rapidly shifting from potential conflict to the reality of available barrels.
Technical Breakdown: Charting the Downtrend
The technical landscape for Brent Crude (XBRUSD) paints a clear picture of a trend reversal. The medium-term upward trajectory, which had been in place on the daily chart since mid-December 2025, suffered a decisive blow on May 25. A notable downside gap on that date signaled the beginning of a significant pullback.
Following this gap, the price action decisively broke below the lower boundary of the prevailing market profile. This technical breach appears to have accelerated the downward momentum, with traders now eyeing key support levels. If the current pace of decline persists, the $70,000 area could emerge as the next significant downside reference point.
Should a corrective rebound materialize, traders will be closely watching the confluence of the former lower profile boundary at $95,100 and the critical point of control (POC) zone situated between $103,600 and $104,000. These levels represent substantial overhead resistance. Further upside potential, should prices decisively clear the upper profile boundary at $113,000, might then bring the prominent red resistance mark at $120,500 into play.
Current momentum indicators offer a mixed, albeit cautious, signal. Readings from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages stand at 28, 38, and 43, respectively. The moving averages are predominantly colored red, indicating bearish sentiment, while the RSI has dipped into oversold territory. This configuration suggests a period of elevated uncertainty and potentially increasing volatility in the immediate future.
Volume analysis, specifically vertical volume, has not yet displayed any unusual spikes or significant anomalies that would strongly contradict the current price action, leaving the technical picture leaning towards continued caution.
Reading Between the Lines
The confluence of easing geopolitical tensions and the technical breakdown in Brent Crude suggests a challenging period ahead for oil bulls. The market's narrative has decisively shifted from scarcity fears to an expectation of ample supply. This recalibration by market participants is crucial; it discounts future supply availability and removes the 'fear premium' that had been artificially inflating prices.
The current market structure strongly indicates a downside bias. With the medium-term uptrend now broken and expectations of additional oil entering the market, short-term price action is likely to remain under pressure. This environment calls for a re-evaluation of long-only strategies and a closer look at potential shorting opportunities or defensive positioning.
Market Ripple Effects
The softening of Brent Crude prices has broader implications across several interconnected markets. The most direct impact will be felt by oil-producing nations and companies. Currencies like the Canadian Dollar (CAD), often sensitive to commodity prices, could face headwinds if oil prices continue to slide. Energy sector equities may also experience downward pressure as profit margins are squeezed.
Furthermore, a sustained drop in oil prices could influence inflation expectations globally. Lower energy costs can reduce inflationary pressures, potentially giving central banks more breathing room. This could indirectly affect interest rate expectations and bond markets, particularly for economies heavily reliant on imported energy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) might see some strength if global risk aversion decreases due to reduced geopolitical instability, although this effect could be counteracted by lower inflation expectations.
Traders should monitor the interaction between these factors. While the immediate catalyst is geopolitical detente, the subsequent price action will be dictated by supply-demand fundamentals and the broader macroeconomic environment. The key risk remains an unexpected escalation of tensions, which could rapidly reintroduce a significant risk premium into oil prices. Conversely, continued calm and steady supply could lead to a deeper correction, testing the $70,000 level and potentially impacting broader market sentiment towards risk assets.
Track markets in real-time
Empower your investment decisions with AI-powered analysis, technical indicators and real-time price data.
Join Our Telegram Channel
Get breaking market news, AI analysis and trading signals delivered instantly to your Telegram.
Join Channel
PriceONN News
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut their forecast for oil prices towards the end of the year and 2027 following developments in the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran earlier this week. Morgan Stanley now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter, Bloomberg reported, citing a note from the bank’s commodity team. Morgan Stanley’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third...
PriceONN News
Two tankers that were heading to Africa have changed course and are now moving to the Middle East, Bloomberg reported today, citing ship-tracking data. One of the tankers, a Suezmax, which was originally sailing for Gabon, is now signaling its destination as Fujairah, the UAE port just outside the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg said. The other vessel, a very large crude carrier, was originally en route to South Africa but is now also signaling Fujairah as its destination. News about a peace deal...
PriceONN News
The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade has pushed oil below $80, though risks remain if tensions in Lebanon escalate. China Slams the Brakes on Crude Refining - China’s crude throughput has plunged by a hefty 9.1% year-over-year to 12.7 million b/d, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics, marking one of the most substantial instances of demand destruction on the heels of the US-Iran conflict.- Refinery runs in China plunged to their lowest...
PriceONN News
At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have exited the U.S. Navy blockade.
PriceONN News
The issue of energy dependence and its consequences has, in recent months, become a major topic of discussion. The Hormuz crisis has brought energy security to the political agenda with a vengeance amid fuel price caps, rationing, and warnings of severe shortages. A lot of countries have been used as examples of either low dependence and therefore insulation against shocks, or high dependence that has resulted in a lot of economic pain. In the latter category, Taiwan stands out as a...
PriceONN News
The announcement from Egypt’s petroleum and mineral resources minister Karim Badawi that the country has paid all its outstanding debts to foreign oil firms is as welcome to international oil companies and their governments as it is to the country itself. Egypt has become one of the West’s prime targets in the hunt for replacement gas supplies after the loss of Russian flows following the 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Officially, it holds around 93 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven...
PriceONN News
Norway is moving ahead with the next phase of development at Johan Sverdrup, a project designed to help maintain production from the oil field that has become one of Europe's most important sources of crude supply. According to Equinor, new discoveries in the Johan Sverdrup area have laid the foundation for Phase 4 of the giant North Sea field. Preliminary estimates indicate resources of around 20 million barrels of oil and approximately 30 million barrels of oil equivalent, with production...
PriceONN News
Iran won’t have to wait for inspectors, certifications, or a long diplomatic victory lap to start earning oil revenue again. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, according to people familiar with the deal who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. The sanctions relief takes effect as soon as the agreement is signed and extends beyond crude exports to include the banking, shipping, and...
PriceONN News
The tentative U.S.-Iran deal and the expected drop in oil prices amid increasing flows from the Middle East are set to help narrow India’s trade deficit, which held at relatively high levels in April and May due to the crude price shock. Higher refined petroleum products helped India’s trade deficit narrow slightly to $28.21 billion in May from $28.38 billion in April, but the crude import bill nearly doubled compared to the same month last year. India’s petroleum imports jumped to $22.7...
PriceONN News
The benchmark crude grades of the Middle East have slumped this week as the U.S.-Iran deal raises hopes that supply from the top oil-exporting region would begin to recover soon. As a result of the eased concerns about prompt crude supply from the region, the key benchmark crudes, Dubai and Murban, saw their futures curve structure on Tuesday flip to contango for the first time since the war began on February 28, according to data
PriceONN News
(RTTNews) - Oil extended declines on Tuesday, after having fallen to a three-month low in the previous session on easing energy supply concerns.
PriceONN News
In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that prompted the latter to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, most reports dealt with numbers-numbers showing the amount of oil supply lost due to the closure. Those numbers varied by source, but were all above 10 million barrels daily. Now, traders are saying the loss in supply may be much smaller. “After an initial disruption at the onset of the conflict, flows strengthened as alternative logistics scaled up,” analytics provider...