Crude Oil Forecasts Rise as Geopolitical Risks Intensify: Is $70 Oil Back?

Indian state-controlled oil refiners continue to search the market for spot crude supply as term deliveries are constrained by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and its key oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) are looking to buy a combined 6 million barrels of crude oil via spot tenders, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing tender documents it has seen. HPCL is seeking up to 4 million...

The IEA has slashed its 2026 global oil supply forecast, with output now expected to plunge 4.3 million barrels per day this year as the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushes the market deeper into deficit. The latest forecast is considerably worse than the 3.7-million-bpd decline the agency projected just last month and would leave global supply at 102.02 million bpd, its lowest forecast for 2026 yet. Supply is now expected to fall 1.27 million bpd short of demand for the year,...

Brent Crude oil prices rose above $89 per barrel in early trade in Europe on Wednesday as Iran and the United States offered contrasting claims about who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Crude prices were up by 0.64% at $89.60 in the morning in Europe, and WTI Crude was rising by 0.94% at $83.90, amid persistent supply concerns and risks despite claims from the U.S. that traffic at Hormuz had normalized. Iran, for its part, said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless...

(RTTNews) - Crude oil prices have surged on Tuesday, extending the gains from the two previous sessions as the U.S.-Iran stalemate over new demands for compensation for war-related damages continued, diminishing the expectations of an early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil flows from the Middle East have normalized, with Sunday traffic alone above pre-conflict averages, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday in a claim that appears not to be backed by ship-tracking data. On Tuesday, Secretary Wright posted on X that “Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.” He went on to add that “When combined with...

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 9.072 million barrels in the week ending August 7, compared to analyst expectations for a 500,000-barrel draw. In the week prior, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.69 million barrels. The larger-than-expected build was driven in part by higher crude imports relative to exports during the week. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost just over 49 million barrels over...

Five months after the U.S. and Israel opened a war with Iran, global fuel markets still haven't settled down, and the latest IEA data prove it. The IEA's monthly end-use price tracker, updated Aug. 7 and covering prices through July, shows the average per-liter cost of automotive diesel across the countries it tracks sitting near $1.94 in U.S. dollar terms. That's roughly 14% above where it stood in February, before the war started, and it's actually higher than June, even as crude oil kept...

Hormuz tensions are flaring again as Iranian exports collapse, pushing Brent toward $87 and raising the risk of another run toward $100. China’s Crude Drawdown Puts Iranian Barrels Back in Demand - Shrinking crude inventories in China might spur a buying spree over the upcoming weeks, particularly for Russian and Iranian crude, buoyed by a record-high July stock draw in Shandong.    - Chinese teapots are expected to boost their purchases of Iranian oil in the upcoming days as stockpiles in the...

The national oil company of the United Arab Emirates has issued its eighth spot tender since June, trade sources told Reuters on Tuesday, as the Gulf producer that has just left OPEC pushes to sell increased crude volumes to international markets. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is offering in the latest spot tender cargoes of the Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu, and Das crude grades for loading in October and November’ sources. These crudes are produced within the Persian...

OPEC’s total oil production jumped by 1.17 million barrels per day in July from June as many Gulf producers restored some output that was shut in for three months due to the closed Strait of Hormuz. Output at the 11-member OPEC rose to 19.85 million bpd in July, extending the monthly increases for the second consecutive month, according to a based on ship-tracking data and information provided by sources at OPEC, oil companies, and consultants. In May, when major Gulf producers...

Libya’s National Oil Corporation may declare force majeure on exports from the Zawya oil terminal as a result of drone attacks on the facility. The Zawya terminal has a daily capacity of 120,000 barrels, sourced from the country’s largest oil field, Sharara, which can produce up to 300,000 barrels daily, Reuters noted in a report on the possibility of a force majeure declaration. According to reports, a drone strike had destroyed a storage tank and another drone had targeted an oil blending...

The latest Bloomberg data show that shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely disrupted Monday morning, even as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to a deal. Brent crude futures traded near $85 a barrel as markets priced in the possibility that a deal to reopen the maritime chokepoint could be imminent. Yet global supply-chain stress remains near its highest level since the pandemic, and any normalization could take months, even if shipping traffic resumes. UBS senior...