Dark Tanker Transits Surge at Bab el-Mandeb as Houthi Threat Persists - Energy | PriceONN
The Houthi threat to shipments of Saudi crude oil from the Red Sea hasn’t abated and more tankers laden with Saudi oil appeared to have made the transit through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in dark mode. Two tankers that had loaded Saudi crude at the Red Sea port of Yanbu have likely exited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in southern direction with their transponders off, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing vessel-tracking data it is monitoring. The Greece-owned Lesvos tanker of the Suezmax size and...

Stealthy Journeys Through a Vital Waterway

The shadow of escalating Houthi aggression continues to loom large over vital energy supply lines. Evidence suggests a growing trend of oil tankers opting for clandestine passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. This strategic maneuver, involving the deactivation of vessel transponders, is a direct response to the persistent threats posed by Houthi forces to Saudi crude oil shipments originating from the Red Sea.

Recent observations, based on vessel-tracking data, indicate that at least two tankers recently loaded with Saudi crude at the Red Sea port of Yanbu likely transited the Bab el-Mandeb southward with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals turned off. These vessels, identified as the Greece-owned Suezmax tanker Lesvos and the Indian-flagged supertanker Desh Vaibhav, were last detected transmitting their positions near Yanbu on Saturday. By Monday, they reappeared on tracking systems off the coast of southern Oman, a significant indication of their silent passage.

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Satellite imagery captured at the Yanbu port on Saturday revealed a notable build-up, with at least five tankers berthed. This activity may represent the busiest period at the Saudi port since the Houthis first voiced intentions to disrupt the kingdom's oil exports approximately two weeks prior. The situation highlights the immediate impact of geopolitical tensions on global energy logistics.

Shifting Export Strategies Amidst Rising Risk

In the wake of the Houthi declarations to interdict Saudi shipments, the kingdom has been compelled to adapt its export strategy. A portion of its crude oil exports are now being rerouted northward, destined for Egypt and subsequently the Suez Canal. Concurrently, a rising number of vessels are resorting to 'going dark' – disabling their tracking systems – as they navigate the treacherous Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the south.

This evolving tactic underscores the heightened risk perception among vessel operators. Last week alone, six tankers reportedly diverted course in the Arabian Sea, steering clear of the Bab el-Mandeb following Houthi threats and reported attacks on other vessels. These incidents have prompted Saudi Arabia to once again adjust its crude oil export routes.

Further illustrating the logistical pivot, more than a handful of empty supertankers were observed heading towards Egypt's Sidi Kerir port in the past week. Their purpose is to load Saudi crude, signaling the world's leading crude exporter's continuous adaptation of its export tactics to circumvent the newly established threat environment at Bab el-Mandeb.

The Bigger Picture

The increased use of 'dark' transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait represents a significant development in maritime security and energy markets. While disabling transponders allows vessels to potentially avoid targeted attacks, it also introduces a layer of opacity that can concern market participants and complicate supply chain management. The rerouting of Saudi crude exports, a substantial portion of global supply, can lead to increased voyage times and associated costs, potentially impacting global oil prices.

This situation directly affects the flow of crude oil, influencing benchmarks like Brent and WTI. The disruption also has ripple effects on related currency pairs, such as USD/CAD, as oil prices are a significant driver of the Canadian dollar. Furthermore, the heightened geopolitical risk could bolster demand for safe-haven assets, potentially benefiting gold.

Traders and investors should closely monitor developments in the Red Sea region. The sustained Houthi threat could lead to longer-term shifts in shipping routes, impacting tanker charter rates and insurance premiums. The market will be watching for any official statements from Saudi Arabia regarding its export volumes and any further escalation of hostilities. The effectiveness of these 'dark' transits in avoiding disruption, versus the increased operational risks, will be a key dynamic to observe.

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