Economics Week Ahead - Forex | PriceONN
With Warsh’s second FOMC meeting approaching, we expect the Fed to remain on hold while maintaining a modest tightening bias. Next week’s PCE report will either reinforce or challenge that view, though we continue to expect slightly cooler inflation. We also expect Q2 GDP growth to moderate from Q1, despite continued economic resilience. In Australia, […] The post Economics Week Ahead appeared first on ActionForex.

With Warsh’s second FOMC meeting approaching, we expect the Fed to remain on hold while maintaining a modest tightening bias. Next week’s PCE report will either reinforce or challenge that view, though we continue to expect slightly cooler inflation. We also expect Q2 GDP growth to moderate from Q1, despite continued economic resilience.

In Australia, we expect inflationary pressures to remain elevated. Over in the U.K. we expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged. Likewise, we expect the BoJ to keep policy unchanged as it continues its gradual normalization process. In Canada, we expect GDP growth to expand modestly. In the Eurozone, we expect firmer GDP growth and inflation. In emerging markets, Mexico’s GDP growth is expected to rebound, but not meaningfully accelerate.

  • United States: FOMC (Wednesday), Personal Income & Spending (Thursday), Q2 GDP (Thursday)
  • G10 Economies: Australia CPI (Wednesday), Bank of England (Thursday), Bank of Japan (Friday), Canada GDP (Friday), Eurozone GDP & CPI (Friday)
  • Emerging Markets: Mexico GDP (Thursday)

    U.S. Week Ahead

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    FOMC • Wednesday

    We expect Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as FOMC Chair to be a punt to September as the Committee awaits more data that either confirm or dispel their hawkish leanings. Since the last FOMC meeting, both employment and inflation have come in cooler than expected, and these factors should tilt the scales toward a policy rate hold. But, it is clear from recent Fed communications that the bar to hike rates is low, and the recent jump in oil prices is once again threatening to drive inflation higher in the months ahead. At least two hawkish dissents are probable, most likely from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.

    There will be no updated SEP at this meeting, and with Chair Warsh generally adopting a “less is more” mindset to Fed communications, we would be surprised if the shortened statement or press conference yielded any big reveals. We expect Chair Warsh will use the press conference to buy the Committee time ahead of its next meeting on September 16. He likely will note that policy is in a good place to await additional information and that the Committee will deliver on its inflation target. We expect he will point to the ongoing work of the task forces when asked about balance sheet policy, Committee communications, and the outlook for inflation.

Forex Fed GDP Inflation Economy
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