Elliott Wave View: Wti Crude Oil (Cl) Eyeing Lower Range at $68–$73
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Bearish Pattern Persists for WTI Crude
The trajectory for WTI Light Crude Oil (CL) has been decidedly downward since the peak reached on May 19, 2026. This sustained bearish sequence has seen the commodity trace a path marked by successive lower lows and lower highs, a classic indicator of prevailing negative sentiment.
The initial leg down from the aforementioned high concluded with wave 1, establishing a low at $86.35. What followed was a corrective phase, labeled wave 2, which took the form of a zigzag pattern. This correction saw an initial upward thrust to $94.78 (wave (a)), followed by a pullback to $90.12 (wave (b)), and then a final push higher to $97.02 (wave (c)). This completed the higher-degree wave 2.
Crucially, following the completion of wave 2, crude oil resumed its downward trend. The break below the termination point of wave 1 at $86.35 served as a critical confirmation of the bearish structural integrity. The market's subsequent movements continue to reinforce this outlook.
Projected Downside Targets Identified
The path lower for WTI Crude Oil appears to be mapped by Fibonacci extension levels, specifically the 100% to 123.6% range stemming from the May 19 high. This technical construct points towards a significant support area situated between $68 and $73.
Examining the recent price action from the wave 2 peak at $97.02, we observed an initial decline to $89.68 (wave (i)). This was followed by a bounce to $95.47 (wave (ii)). The market then recommenced its descent, carving out a more complex, nested sequence within the broader bearish trend. Wave (i) of the next leg down concluded at $85.95, with wave (ii) of this smaller sequence retracing upwards to $93.64.
The most recent price action indicates a renewed push lower, firmly keeping the bearish sentiment in play. For the foreseeable future, as long as the price remains capped below the wave 2 peak of $97.02, any rallies are anticipated to be temporary. These upward movements are expected to conclude within three or seven price swings, failing to alter the dominant downside pressure.
Trader Takeaways
The persistent bearish sequence in WTI Crude Oil, now targeting the $68-$73 range, presents a clear signal for market participants. The structural breakdown below the initial wave 1 low at $86.35 solidifies the downside risk, suggesting that any upward retracements are likely to be short-lived opportunities for sellers.
This development carries implications for related markets. A sustained drop in crude prices could put downward pressure on currencies of major oil-exporting nations like the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Additionally, energy sector stocks may face headwinds, while inflation expectations could moderate if the decline in oil prices is significant and prolonged. Traders should closely monitor the $97.02 level as a key resistance; its failure to break suggests the bearish thesis remains intact. Conversely, a decisive breach of this level could signal a significant shift in market sentiment, though current data does not favor this outcome.
The immediate risk for traders is getting caught on the wrong side of the trend. Chasing rallies that fail near resistance could lead to quick losses. The key opportunity lies in identifying shorting opportunities on bounces, targeting the projected $68-$73 zone. Market desks are likely watching for any signs of capitulation or a potential bottoming formation within this target range, but until then, the path of least resistance appears to be lower.
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