Weekly Market Outlook: March 16, 2026 – March 20, 2026 (Week 12)
Executive Summary
Week 12 (March 16, 2026 – March 20, 2026) will likely be dominated by the U.S. Dollar's continued strength, driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming CPI data. Traders will be closely watching key support and resistance levels across major currency pairs, precious metals, and energy markets. Oil prices are expected to remain volatile amid ongoing Middle East conflict and supply concerns. CPI data will be crucial in determining the near-term direction for equities and risk assets.
US Dollar: Expect further upside potential, especially if CPI exceeds expectations.
Oil: Volatility will likely continue, driven by geopolitical factors.
Equities: CPI data will be a critical catalyst; watch key support levels.
The Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 100.20, gaining 0.8% on the daily chart. Technical indicators suggest continued bullish momentum. The RSI(14) is at 74.7 on the daily timeframe, indicating overbought conditions, but still with room to run. The MACD histogram is positive at +0.22, confirming the upward trend. Traders will be watching for a potential test of the 100.50 resistance level. A break above this level could open the door for further gains towards 101.00. Support lies at 99.58, followed by 99.23. If the CPI data comes in below expectations, the DXY could see a sharp correction towards these support levels.
EUR/USD closed at 1.14174, down 0.8% daily. The pair is showing strong bearish signals across multiple timeframes. The daily RSI(14) is at 23.6, indicating oversold conditions, but also suggesting potential for further downside. The MACD histogram is near zero. Key resistance levels to watch will be 1.15525 and 1.15951. Support levels are at 1.14881, 1.14663 and 1.14237. A break below 1.14000 could trigger a further sell-off. Traders will be focusing on the Eurozone economic data releases this week, as well as the overall risk sentiment. Downside momentum will likely persist.
GBP/USD closed at 1.32218, down 0.88% daily. The pair is exhibiting bearish momentum. The daily RSI(14) is at 30.6, suggesting further downside potential. The MACD histogram is near zero. Resistance is at 1.33872 and 1.34352. Support is at 1.33125, 1.32858 and 1.32378. A break below 1.32000 could lead to a test of the 1.3150 level. The market will be sensitive to any Brexit-related news and UK economic data. Look to our daily bulletin for updated chart analysis.
USD/JPY closed at 159.74, up 0.27% daily. The pair is in a strong uptrend. The daily RSI(14) is at 70.1, indicating overbought conditions. The MACD histogram is positive at +0.38. Resistance is at 159.63 and 159.96, with a potential test of 160.00. Support is at 158.77 and 158.23. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance will be closely watched. Continued dovish rhetoric could fuel further upside. Look for potential breakout above the 160.00 level.
AUD/USD closed at 0.69811, down 1.27% daily. The pair is exhibiting bearish momentum. The daily RSI(14) is at 44.8, suggesting further downside potential. The MACD histogram is near zero. Resistance is at 0.71302 and 0.71896. Support is at 0.70409, 0.70110 and 0.69516. A break below 0.70000 could lead to a test of the 0.6900 level. Australian economic data will be a key driver this week.
NZD/USD closed at 0.57750, down 1.26% daily. The pair is showing bearish signals. The daily RSI(14) is at 31.9. The MACD histogram is near zero. Resistance is at 0.58919 and 0.59353. Support is at 0.58260, 0.58035 and 0.57601. A break below 0.57000 could trigger a further sell-off. New Zealand's economic data will be closely watched this week. Look for updated chart analysis in our daily bulletin.
Gold closed at $5,021.73, down 1.12% daily, poised for a second weekly loss. The daily RSI(14) is at 47.9, indicating neutral momentum. The MACD histogram is negative at -26.53. Key resistance levels to watch will be 5,161.80 and 5,244.78. Support levels are at 5,025.47, 4,972.12 and 4,889.14. A break below 5,000 could accelerate the sell-off. Traders will be focusing on the U.S. CPI data this week, as higher-than-expected inflation numbers could put further downward pressure on gold prices. Geopolitical tensions could provide some support, but the overall trend appears to be bearish. Gold could test the 4,970.76 level, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Silver closed at $80.578, down 3.87% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 45.4. The MACD histogram is negative at -0.33. Resistance is at 86.480 and 89.140. Support is at 82.070, 80.320 and 77.660. The recent news of silver tumbling below $81 will likely weigh on sentiment. Traders should watch for a potential test of the 76.340 Fibonacci level.
Brent crude closed at $103.82, up 2.1% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 87.4, indicating overbought conditions. The MACD histogram is positive at +2.49. Resistance is at 103.90 and 106.13, with a potential test of 110.00. Support is at 97.31 and 92.95. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue driving prices higher. Traders should monitor supply disruptions and any news related to OPEC+ production. A pullback towards the 97.05 (38.2% Fibonacci) level is possible if tensions ease slightly.
WTI crude closed at $99.18, up 3.08% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 82.9, also indicating overbought conditions. The MACD histogram is positive at +2.62. Resistance is at 99.25 and 102.30, with a potential test of $100.00. Support is at 90.94 and 85.68. Similar to Brent, WTI prices are expected to remain elevated due to geopolitical risks and supply concerns. The active trading signal is BUY (strength: 30%, timeframe: 1 day), but the overbought conditions suggest caution. A test of the 95.14 (38.2% Fibonacci) level is possible.
Bitcoin closed at $70,614, down 0.69% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 51.8, indicating neutral momentum. The MACD histogram is positive at +658.03. Resistance is at 73,344 and 75,580. Support is at 69,444 and 67,780. Bitcoin's price action will likely be influenced by overall risk sentiment and macroeconomic data. If CPI comes in higher than expected, it could trigger a sell-off in risk assets, including Bitcoin. The 71,693 (38.2% Fibonacci) level is key. Look for further analysis in our daily bulletin.
Ethereum closed at $2,073.80, down 1.29% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 50.6. The MACD histogram is positive at +27.26. Resistance is at 2,187.21 and 2,273.58. Support is at 2,034.00 and 1,967.16. Ethereum's price action will likely mirror Bitcoin's, with a focus on macroeconomic data and risk sentiment. Watch for a potential test of the 2,049.60 (23.6% Fibonacci) level.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,625, down 0.81% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 33.6, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD histogram is negative at -21.44. Resistance is at 6,739 and 6,798. Support is at 6,643 and 6,607. The S&P 500 will be highly sensitive to the U.S. CPI data this week. Higher-than-expected inflation could trigger a significant sell-off. A break below 6,600 could lead to a test of the 6,579 level. The negative sentiment is strong across all timeframes.
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 24,337, down 0.85% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 39.8. The MACD histogram is negative at -30.73. Resistance is at 24,805 and 25,066. Support is at 24,390 and 24,235. Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 will be heavily influenced by the U.S. CPI data. A break below 24,200 could accelerate the sell-off. The 23,974 level is the next key support.
The Dow Jones 30 closed at 46,503, down 0.48% daily. The daily RSI(14) is at 27.4, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD histogram is negative at -253.62. Resistance is at 47,146 and 47,563. Support is at 46,486 and 46,243. The Dow Jones will also be sensitive to the U.S. CPI data. A break below 46,200 could lead to a test of the 46,299 level. The negative sentiment is strong. Look for more chart analysis in our daily bulletin.
Resistance
Price
R3
47,806
R2
47,563
R1
47,146
Pivot
46,903
Support
Price
S1
46,486
S2
46,243
S3
45,826
Fib 61.8%
48,902
Economic Calendar Preview
US CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Tuesday, March 17, 2026 12:30 UTC
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 3.1%
Scenario
Condition
Expected Impact
Better than expected
Actual > 2.9%
USD strengthens - Higher inflation data will reinforce expectations of hawkish Fed policy, leading to a stronger dollar.
In line with forecast
Actual ≈ 2.9%
Neutral reaction
Worse than expected
Actual < 2.9%
USD weakens - Lower inflation data will reduce expectations of hawkish Fed policy, leading to a weaker dollar.
US Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Tuesday, March 17, 2026 12:30 UTC
Forecast: 3.7% | Previous: 3.9%
Scenario
Condition
Expected Impact
Better than expected
Actual > 3.7%
USD strengthens - Higher core inflation will reinforce expectations of hawkish Fed policy, boosting the dollar.
In line with forecast
Actual ≈ 3.7%
Neutral reaction
Worse than expected
Actual < 3.7%
USD weakens - Lower core inflation will reduce expectations of hawkish Fed policy, weakening the dollar.
US PPI (MoM) (Feb) - Wednesday, March 18, 2026 12:30 UTC
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Scenario
Condition
Expected Impact
Better than expected
Actual > 0.3%
USD strengthens - Higher PPI suggests rising inflationary pressures, reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations and a stronger dollar.
In line with forecast
Actual ≈ 0.3%
Neutral reaction
Worse than expected
Actual < 0.3%
USD weakens - Lower PPI suggests easing inflationary pressures, reducing hawkish Fed expectations and a weaker dollar.
US Unemployment Claims - Thursday, March 19, 2026 12:30 UTC
Forecast: 220K | Previous: 215K
Scenario
Condition
Expected Impact
Better than expected
Actual < 220K
USD strengthens - Lower unemployment claims indicate a strong labor market, supporting hawkish Fed policy and a stronger dollar.
In line with forecast
Actual ≈ 220K
Neutral reaction
Worse than expected
Actual > 220K
USD weakens - Higher unemployment claims indicate a weakening labor market, reducing hawkish Fed expectations and a weaker dollar.
Weekly Trading Bias
US Dollar: Bullish, especially if CPI exceeds expectations.
EUR/USD: Bearish.
GBP/USD: Bearish.
USD/JPY: Bullish, but watch for overbought conditions.
AUD/USD: Bearish.
NZD/USD: Bearish.
Gold: Bearish.
Silver: Bearish.
Brent Crude: Bullish, but volatile.
WTI Crude: Bullish, but volatile.
Bitcoin: Neutral to bearish.
Ethereum: Neutral to bearish.
S&P 500: Bearish.
Nasdaq 100: Bearish.
Dow Jones 30: Bearish.
Overall risk appetite appears to be tilted towards risk-off, driven by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding inflation. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor economic data releases.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
This analysis is powered by PriceONN's 0.12ms data engine with live market feeds, cross-verified across 10-language analyst insights and AI Sentiment data.
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